Know what changed, what it means, and what happens next. NEXUS tracks the stories that move markets and supply chains, explains them with sourced analysis, and puts a probability on the outcome.
Live trackers and the War Room connect regional developments to the markets and routes you care about.
Live now
The platform
Most tools give you one of these. NEXUS connects all three, so the alert, the explanation and the probability sit in the same place.
Live trackers follow the stories that matter to you: Hormuz, Iran, Ukraine, Taiwan, tariffs, the Fed, oil. Every development lands on a dated timeline with its source.
A daily briefing on what changed and why it matters, and an AI analyst that works from NEXUS data and shows its sources. Game-theory models show how the actors are likely to move.
NEXUS puts probabilities on what happens next, compares them with prediction markets, and scores every call when it resolves. The record is public, misses included.
An analyst. In your corner.
Ask what changed. Follow the sources. Look for the evidence that would change your mind.
NEXUS chat pulls the trackers, market data, scenario models and the forecast record into one conversation, so you can work through a decision without losing the thread.
Meet your AI analystStart by separating the event from its possible market impact.
Compare shipping activity, official statements and independent reporting.
Look at energy prices, supply alternatives and the exposure of the positions you hold.
Review similar resolved forecasts. What failed, and what would invalidate this view?
Scenario models
Every crisis is a strategic game. NEXUS models the players, their options and their payoffs, then finds the stable outcomes and the thresholds where things escalate.
When a wartime threshold is crossed, the scenario updates and the strategies built on the old picture are flagged, so your view keeps pace with events.
How the scenario models workWho can move, what each can do, and what it costs them.
Nash equilibria and focal points: where the game is likely to settle.
The triggers that change the game, watched live and flagged when crossed.
Forecasts on the record
Anyone can sound confident. NEXUS states a probability before the outcome, compares it with prediction markets, and scores it when it resolves. Every forecast stays public, including the misses, and the scoring feeds back into the next forecast.
See the full track recordA claim, a probability and a deadline, recorded first.
Set against the prediction-market price where one exists.
Checked against sourced evidence when the deadline arrives.
Scored with the Brier score and fed back into calibration.
Who it is for
If a strait closing, a sanction or an election can move your costs, your cargo or your book, NEXUS is built for you.
Chokepoints, sanctions and conflict risk on your routes, before they reach your schedule.
Supply shocks, OPEC+ decisions and the geopolitics behind the price, in one timeline.
Sourced monitoring of the regions and actors your clients are exposed to.
The macro and geopolitical context behind your positions, with probabilities you can check.
Everything in one workspace
Behind the trackers sits a full research workspace: live maps, market data, sentiment, scenario models and the AI analyst. Connect your broker and prediction-market accounts to see and manage positions next to the risks you are tracking.
Ask anything. The analyst works from NEXUS data with dozens of research tools and shows where each answer came from.
Aircraft, shipping, conflict events and OSINT on one live map.
Geopolitical, market and OSINT signals scored and converged, with news sentiment across sources.
Prices, heatmaps, watchlists, options gamma, on-chain data and macro series from FRED.
Game-theory models of the actors in each crisis, with escalation thresholds watched live.
NEXUS probabilities next to Polymarket and Kalshi prices, scored when they resolve.
Trading 212, Interactive Brokers, IG, Alpaca, Coinbase and Polymarket. See and manage positions in one place.
Alerts by email or Telegram when a tracked story or signal moves, plus scheduled automations.
A daily intelligence briefing and exportable reports your team can act on.
Membership
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