ICE Brent crude oil futures (BZ) will close above $88 per barrel on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-25 at 5% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-08-16.

Derived from: Bayesian Hormuz escalation probability of 67%, Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range), and IRGC actor intelligence showing active escalation posture following loss of senior naval leadership -- structural conditions for a supply-risk premium distinct from the pending USO-specific bearish prediction.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Aug 852d ago
Made: Jul 25

Price Target$88

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

ICE Brent crude oil futures (BZ) will close above $90 per barrel on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruption (tanker seizures, mine incident) and 67% escalation probability sustain elevated crude pricing despite the Bayesian 'sufficient bargaining range' framing.

market5%HIT

Brent crude oil will close above $115 per barrel on at least 4 trading days within 30 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive operations and Hormuz chokepoint threats create sustained supply disruption premium despite SPR releases

market10%MISS

Brent crude oil futures will trade above $95 per barrel on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Iran's multi-wave missile campaign against Israel and documented Strait of Hormuz closure create sustained supply disruption beyond current market pricing

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ICE Brent crude oil futures (BZ) will close above $88 per barrel on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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