HITBrier 0.228

THRESHOLD MET: AUD/USD data during evidence window (2026-03-28 to 2026-04-27) shows multiple days above 0.6800. Specific examples: 2026-04-07 high 0.7083, close 0.7077; 2026-04-08 high 0.7086; 2026-04-09 high 0.7093, close 0.7076; 2026-04-13 high 0.7148, close 0.7099; 2026-04-14 high 0.7167, close 0.7129; 2026-04-15 high 0.7197, close 0.7176; 2026-04-16 high 0.7222. Count of days above 0.6800: More than 10 trading days. Actual: >10 days, Required: 2 days, >10 > 2 therefore threshold MET.

Resolved Apr 27, 2026

Market

LONG correct6A

Australian Dollar futures (6A) will trade above 0.6800 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as confirmed Hormuz closure drives commodity demand and China gray zone escalation paradoxically benefits resource exporters through supply scarcity premiums

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-28 at 52% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-27. Brier score 0.228.

Derived from: Wartime regime confirmed with Strait of Hormuz closure driving energy above $110. China-Taiwan Bayesian equilibrium shows gray zone escalation with 53% probability, creating demand for alternative commodity sources. Australia benefits as non-chokepoint resource supplier.

Probability: 52%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 27155d ago
Made: Mar 28

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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