Live trackers

The stories we are tracking

Each tracker is a living timeline: the latest reporting, NEXUS forecasts with their outcomes, and what prediction markets are pricing. Updated hourly.

Middle EastUpdated 29 Sept, 09:59 UTC
Israel, Gaza and Lebanon conflict
LatestPolymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" at 84%
Reports on September 29 said Israeli forces killed Hamas commander Izz al-Din al-Beik in Gaza, while satellite images showed widespread destruction there. In the occupied West Bank, settlers attacked Jalud and torched homes; Israeli strikes also continued in southern Lebanon despite a ceasefire. Polymarket put the chance that an Israel-Iran ceasefire would continue through October 31 at 84%. NEXUS forecasts an 85% chance of a Hezbollah attack within 14 days and an 85% chance of an Israeli strike against Hamas or Hezbollah during the October 7 anniversary window.
Open tracker 80 updates · market 85%
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Middle EastUpdated 29 Sept, 09:59 UTC
Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping
LatestPolymarket: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" at 22%
Reports say oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have improved since early September, while crude prices have continued to rise and QatarEnergy extended its LNG force majeure through November. Iran and the United States remain in indirect talks on a possible deal to end the fighting and reopen the strait, but Trump rejected Iran’s proposal. Polymarket puts the chance of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 at 22%. Renewed fighting between Houthis and Saudi-backed Yemeni forces has worsened conditions in Yemen.
Open tracker 245 updates · market 22%
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GlobalUpdated 29 Sept, 09:59 UTC
Oil prices and OPEC+
LatestPolymarket: "Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?" at 19%
Oil prices have extended a two-session rally amid persistent Middle East supply concerns, even as reports say Hormuz flows and regional oil exports have rebounded. Polymarket put the chance that Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline would restart by September 30 at 19%; Bloomberg reported it had begun exports after repairs. Argentina has threatened legal action against the UK over an oil project near the Falkland Islands, while analysts say India is unlikely to replace all its Russian crude imports despite a US tariff threat.
Open tracker 246 updates · market 19%
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Middle EastUpdated 29 Sept, 09:59 UTC
Iran nuclear talks and sanctions
LatestPolymarket: "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?" at 4%
U.S.-Iran talks are continuing through mediators, but one report says a deal is unlikely before the U.S. midterm elections. Trump rejected Iran’s peace proposal, while Iran’s foreign minister has met with mediators to review proposals; officials say work on a possible deal continues. The U.S. is reportedly set to grant a limited sanctions waiver for flights carrying pilgrims between Iran and Iraq’s Najaf. Polymarket put the odds of a final nuclear deal by October 31 at 4%.
Open tracker 152 updates · market 4%
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GlobalUpdated 29 Sept, 09:30 UTC
US tariffs and the trade war
LatestIndia Unlikely to Ditch Russian Oil Despite Trump's 100% Tariff Threat
The US and China have agreed to cut tariffs on about $60 billion of goods each, with reciprocal product lists announced after the Trump-Xi meeting; rare earths remain a snag. US soybean farmers criticized China’s exclusion of soybeans from its import list, while analysts say India is unlikely to replace its Russian crude imports despite Trump’s 100% tariff threat. NEXUS forecasts put the probability of new US trade restrictions targeting China within 30 days at 66%.
Open tracker 36 updates
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EuropeUpdated 29 Sept, 09:01 UTC
Russia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks
LatestBomb by Bomb, the Slow Death of My Hometown in Ukraine
Russian strikes across Ukraine have hit Kyiv’s National Academy of Sciences, a hospital and civilian areas, causing deaths and fires. Reports describe emergency workers responding in eastern Ukraine’s “fortress cities” as attacks continue. Zelenskyy warns that Russia is preparing to deploy another 10,000 North Korean troops, while Putin has ordered an increase in the size of the Russian army. Ukraine says it struck four Russian oil depots.
Open tracker 113 updates
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United StatesUpdated 28 Sept, 16:54 UTC
Federal Reserve and US interest rates
LatestFederal Reserve Staffer Removed Sensitive Files Before Retiring, Report Finds - WSJ
NEXUS forecasts an 85% probability that the Fed will hold rates unchanged at its next scheduled decision and maintain a hawkish stance. It also assigns an 85% probability to no rate change after the October 2026 meeting. A separate forecast puts the chance of explicit “higher for longer” guidance at 67% by October 25. September-meeting rate-change forecasts expired without confirmation evidence.
Open tracker 38 updates
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Asia-PacificUpdated 28 Sept, 11:03 UTC
China, Taiwan and the South China Sea
LatestChina deploys advanced WZ-7 drone for first time near Scarborough Shoal
China conducted an air-sea exercise near Scarborough Shoal on September 27, and deployed its WZ-7 high-altitude reconnaissance drone there for the first time during the drills. Recent Taiwan-related NEXUS forecasts put the probability of further PLA activity near Taiwan within 14 days at 85%, while a forecast of a full-scale invasion by year-end was 5%. A forecast that the PLA would record more than 50 aircraft in a single-day Taiwan ADIZ incursion by September 25 resolved as a miss; the highest reported count in its evidence window was 28.
Open tracker 131 updates
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The stories we are tracking

Israel, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping

Oil prices and OPEC+

Iran nuclear talks and sanctions

US tariffs and the trade war

Russia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

Federal Reserve and US interest rates

China, Taiwan and the South China Sea

The stories we are tracking

Israel, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping

Oil prices and OPEC+

Iran nuclear talks and sanctions

US tariffs and the trade war

Russia-Ukraine war and ceasefire talks

Federal Reserve and US interest rates

China, Taiwan and the South China Sea