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Live tracker·Middle East·Updated
Disruption risk to the world's two most important oil and trade chokepoints: tanker traffic through Hormuz and Houthi attacks around Bab el-Mandeb.
NewsA Pilgrim and a Retiree: Victims of the Houthi Airport Attack in Saudi Arabia
New York Times
The strike was the Iran-backed militia's most lethal against the kingdom, by far, during their long conflict.
NewsSaudi Aramco Headquarters Hit as Houthi Attacks Escalate
OilPrice
Saudi Aramco's administrative building in Dharan, eastern Saudi Arabia, was hit in attacks by the Iran-aligned Houthis on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, amid an escalation of the Saudi-Houthi st
NewsOil Prices Climb Above $106 as Iran Threatens More Tanker Attacks
OilPrice
Crude oil prices moved higher earlier today, after Iranian officials told Reuters the country's forces were planning to further intensify strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, deploying new tact
OddsPolymarket: "Will there be no Hormuz agreement?" at 90%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
NewsAramco facility hit as Houthis and Saudi coalition exchange attacks
SCMP
Saudi Arabia said on Wednesday that an attack on an Aramco building in the kingdom's east sparked a "limited fire" and that debris from intercepted Houthi missiles wounded four people in the capital R
NewsHouthis launch fresh wave of missiles across Saudi Arabia
Deutsche Welle
Both the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition carried out strikes targeting energy infrastructure. Four people were injured as a result of debris of intercepted missiles in Riyadh. DW has the latest.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 70%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
NewsStranded Middle East LNG Supply Upends Gas Markets
OilPrice
The LNG supply out of the Middle East has not recovered in any meaningful way seven and a half months after the Iran war choked oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Since March, some oc
NewsHouthi attacks on Saudi airports continue, marking major escalation in Yemen war
Washington Times
Iran-backed Houthi militants fired missiles and drones into Saudi Arabian territory on Monday, according to Saudi-coalition forces in Yemen.
NewsSaudi Arabia: Second strike kills at least 1 at Riyadh airport
Deutsche Welle
Sunday's strike came as the King Khalid International Airport remained closed after a deadly attack on Saturday, and after a warning from Houthi rebels in Yemen that "worse is yet to come." Dammam air
NewsSaudi Arabia: 12 killed, hundreds injured in Riyadh airport attack
Deutsche Welle
A Saudi-led coalition has vowed a "decisive" response after the deadliest strike on Saudi soil in over a decade. Officials have pinned the attack on Iran-backed Houthi militia.
This tracker updates hourly from NEXUS news monitoring, published forecasts and prediction-market prices. Headlines link to their original publishers. NEXUS forecasts are recorded before their outcome and scored when they resolve. How forecasts are made and scored.
Washington Times
The European Union's envoy to the Gulf said Tuesday that the same drone models are hitting Ukraine and Saudi Arabia, after an overnight attack sank a cargo ship off NATO member Bulgaria and Houthi str
OddsPolymarket: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" at 14%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
OddsPolymarket: "Will there be no Hormuz agreement?" at 89%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
OddsPolymarket: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" at 14%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
NewsWhy advanced U.S. weapons aren't stopping Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia
NBC News
Saudi Arabia has one of the world's most expensive and sophisticated arsenals, filled with American warplanes, missile defenses and other cutting-edge technology.
NewsSaudi Arabia strikes strategic oil depots near Yemen capital
The Guardian
Civilians warned to evacuate outskirts of Sana'a ahead of biggest attack so far on Houthi energy infrastructure Saudi Arabia has launched a series of strikes on a strategic oil depot on the o
NewsTrump says Houthis are 'purposefully trying to drive up oil prices' to help Iran
Washington Examiner
NewsWhy Saudi Arabia has struggled to defend itself against the Houthis' recent attacks
Washington Times
Saudi Arabia has one of the world's most expensive and sophisticated arsenals, filled with American warplanes, missile defenses and other cutting-edge technology.
NewsSaudi Arabia's military struggle against Houthi attacks
Deutsche Welle
Houthi attacks on airports and energy facilities are putting Saudi Arabia under pressure. Could a Saudi-led international military offensive succeed against the Iran-aligned Houthi militia in Yemen?
NewsSaudi Arabia Becomes the Oil Market's Biggest Wild Card
OilPrice
Houthi attacks threaten Saudi oil infrastructure and Gulf shipping as Brent hovers near $105 per barrel. Trump's Fuel-Price Problem Is Becoming a Political One - The Trump administration's Russia dies
NewsJapanese Refiners Buy Middle East Crude Through Ship-to-Ship Transfers
OilPrice
Several Japanese oil tankers are returning to the Middle East to pick up crude cargoes for Japan's refineries, but none of these are moving into the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. Instead,
NewsSaudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthis Trade Threats Targeting Oil Facilities
New York Times
The Iran-backed militia threatened to attack the Saudi energy giant Aramco, which it has done before, after the Saudi authorities issued an evacuation notice to an oil facility in the Yemeni capital.
OddsPolymarket: "Will there be no Hormuz agreement?" at 88%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
NewsCould Pakistan's Chinese-made weapons help protect Saudi Arabia from Houthi attacks?
SCMP
Chinese-Pakistani fighter jets and a China-made air-defence system reportedly deployed to Saudi Arabia could be brought into action following Pakistan's renewed pledge to defend the kingdom after dead
NewsSaudi Arabia Detains Americans For Photographing Houthi Attack Sites
Daily Wire
Saudi Arabia has detained American citizens for photographing recent missile and drone attacks, the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh warned Monday, as Iran-backed Houthi rebels intensify their attacks across th
NewsHouthis vow 'swift and painful' retaliation if US strikes Yemen after Trump condemns attacks
Washington Examiner
NewsHouthis and Saudis strike each other in latest escalation
Deutsche Welle
Fighting has continued between Iran-backed rebels and Saudi Arabia, adversely impacting the kingdom's economy and security. Still, Saudi officials have stopped warning of Houthi attacks in an effort t
NewsHouthi rebels report airstrikes in Yemen, and other Middle East developments
Washington Times
Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels on Tuesday accused Saudi Arabia of carrying out overnight airstrikes along Yemen's northern border with the kingdom and its western coastline. Saudi Arabia did not im
NewsSaudi Arabia Shoots Down Houthi Missiles as Regional Conflict Escalates
OilPrice
A day after the two consecutive deadly attacks on the international airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles launched by the Iran-aligned Houthi group in Yemen
NewsSaudi Arabia Plans Massive Expansion of Oil Pipeline to Bypass Hormuz
OilPrice
Saudi Arabia plans to raise the capacity of its East-West onshore oil pipeline that helps it bypass the Strait of Hormuz to 10 million barrels per day (bpd) within two to three years, Saudi Energy Min
NewsHouthi official warns US against entering war in Yemen as Saudis weather attacks
SCMP
A Houthi official has warned the US it would receive a "painful response" if it entered the war in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia has reportedly requested Washington's help in dealing with the group as it
NewsOil Prices Retreat as Saudi Arabia Pledges to Keep Exports Flowing
OilPrice
Crude oil prices, which topped $106 per barrel yesterday, have eased today, as traders process the latest Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the related risk to energy supply, while also waiting to se
Financial Times
NewsEuropean Natural Gas Prices Headed for Multi-Year Highs
OilPrice
Europe's main natural gas price benchmark is headed for multi-year highs despite the "energy ceasefire" reported between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend and improving Strait of Hormuz energy flows
NewsOil Prices Jump 2% on Saudi Attacks as OPEC Sees Demand Rebound
OilPrice
Oil prices climbed to their highest levels in nearly two weeks on Monday morning as fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia and oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz put Middle East supply risks back at the cen
NewsSaudi Arabia Faces More Attacks as It Reels From Airport Strikes
New York Times
The Saudi authorities said they were fending off drone and missile attacks after a weekend of confrontation with the Houthi militia in Yemen, whose patrons Iran offered to mediate.
NewsSaudis probe how defense systems failed to stop deadly Houthi attack on Riyadh airport
Washington Times
Saudi Arabia has launched an investigation to determine how its air defenses failed to intercept a barrage of missiles and drones fired by Iran-backed Houthi rebels, including an attack on Riyadh airp
NewsShia Houthis Attack Sunni Saudis: The Myth Of Muslim Unity
Daily Wire
Missiles fell on Riyadh this weekend, fired not by infidel armies but by fellow Muslims targeting the land that houses Islam's two holiest cities. On Saturday, the Iran-backed Houthis have struck agai
NewsDeadly Saudi airport strikes mark major Mideast escalation
NBC News
Fears of intensifying conflict were growing in Saudi Arabia on Monday after Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched multiple strikes on Riyadh's airport over the weekend, killing 13 people and wounding h
NewsOil Jumps 2% as Saudi Attacks and Tanker Strikes Revive Hormuz Fears
OilPrice
Oil prices climbed to their highest levels in nearly two weeks on Monday morning as fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia and oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz put Middle East supply risks back at the cen
NewsSaudi Arabia faces more drone, missile attacks after Houthi's fatal airport strikes
SCMP
Saudi Arabia said it was dealing with new drone and cruise missile attacks on Monday, posing fresh security threats to the kingdom following the weekend's deadly strikes on Riyadh airport. "We have de
NewsSaudi Arabia further suspends flights after latest deadly Houthi attack on airport
The Guardian
Energy minister says 'fear has no place in the Saudi lexicon' as paramilitary group again breach stretched defences Saudi Arabia was forced to extend the suspension of all flights to and from
NewsIran Offers to Mediate Between Its Houthi Allies and Saudi Arabia
New York Times
Iran has long backed the Houthis, a Yemeni militia, and it made the offer as Saudi Arabia contends with increasingly deadly attacks from them.
NewsIran Offers to Mediate Between Its Houthi Allies and Saudi Arabia - The New York Times
The New York Times
NewsSaudi Arabia: Deadly Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport fuel fears of wider Middle East conflict
Deutsche Welle
Deadly Houthi attacks on Saudi airports have disrupted flights and raised fears of a wider regional conflict, as the US considers military action.
NewsIran-Backed Houthis May Have Just Awakened A Giant
Daily Wire
NewsTwo More Oil Tankers Attacked Near Strait of Hormuz
OilPrice
Two more tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, one in Hormuz and the other off the coast of Oman, Argus has reported, citing ship-tracking data and the Indian shipping minister. O
NewsHouthis kill 14 at Saudi airport as expert warns of 'rapid targets' amid Middle East war
Fox News
Iran-backed Houthis struck Saudi Arabian airports in Riyadh and Dammam, killing at least 14 and injuring over 300 as experts warn of wider war.
Deutsche Welle
Sunday's strike came as the King Khalid International Airport remained closed after a deadly attack on Saturday, and after a warning from Houthi rebels in Yemen that "worse is yet to come." Dammam air
OddsPolymarket: "Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?" at 4%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
NewsSaudi and Yemeni Airports Hit in New Round of Strikes
New York Times
The airport in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, was struck a day after suffering a devastating attack. The Houthis said Saudi aircraft hit the Yemeni capital's airport.
OddsPolymarket: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" at 14%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
NewsRiyadh airport hit by fresh Houthi strike day after deadly attack killed 12
SCMP
A fresh Houthi strike hit Riyadh's international airport on Sunday, a day after another attack claimed by the Yemeni group killed at least a dozen people and forced authorities to suspend operations a
NewsSaudi Arabia: second strike on Riyadh airport
Deutsche Welle
Sunday's strike came as the King Khalid International Airport remained closed following a deadly attack on Saturday, and after a warning from Houthi rebels in Yemen that "worse is yet to come."
NewsSaudi Arabia: Second strike hits Riyadh airport
Deutsche Welle
Sunday's strike came as the King Khalid International Airport remained closed following a deadly attack on Saturday, and after a warning from Houthi rebels in Yemen that "worse is yet to come."
NewsAirlines, travelers warned to avoid Saudi airports after attack that killed 12, including 1 American
Washington Times
The Trump administration is considering joining Saudi Arabia's air campaign against Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
NewsAirlines, travelers warned to avoid Saudi airports after attack that killed 12, including 1 American
Washington Times
The Trump administration is considering joining Saudi Arabia's air campaign against Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
NewsSaudi coalition vows retaliation after deadly Houthi attack on Riyadh airport
The Guardian
Official says coalition will 'respond firmly' as Houthis warn people to avoid Saudi airports and US considers intervening
NewsHouthi attack on Riyadh airport will force rethink of Donald Trump's strategy
The Guardian
US president's plan to park the conflicts in Iran and Yemen, while blaming Ukraine for high diesel prices, has unravelled
NewsSaudi Arabia Has Few Options as Houthis Aim at Heart of Its Ambitions
New York Times
Three deadly attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen on an airport in the Saudi capital underscored the asymmetrical nature of their conflict with the kingdom.
NewsYemen's Houthis warn passengers not to use Saudi airports
Deutsche Welle
The warning from the Iran-backed rebels comes a day after a missile attack on Riyadh airport killed 12 people and injured more than 300. The airport will remain closed until at least Sunday night.
The Guardian
US president Donald Trump says he is weighing whether the US will join Saudi strikes against the Iran-backed Houthis As you can expect, passengers have been avoiding Saudia Arabia's main inte
NewsAmerican citizen among the dead in latest Houthi attack on Riyadh airport, Rubio says
Washington Examiner
NPR
The surge in attacks, including against other Saudi airports, military facilities and oil infrastructure, has come in the week since a Saudi-led coalition launched a major military offensive against t
NewsSaudi Arabia suspends operations at Riyadh airport after an attack causes multiple injuries
Deutsche Welle
Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport has already been targeted multiple times this week amid intensified fighting between Yemen-based Houthi rebels and a Saudi-backed coalition.
NewsSaudi Arabia's Riyadh Airport Attacked Again, After Days of Houthi Strikes
New York Times
Flights were diverted from the airport in the capital of Saudi Arabia, which has faced repeated deadly attacks from the Iran-backed militia in Yemen.
NewsDozens reported injured in Yemeni Houthi attack at Riyadh airport
The Guardian
Saudi authorities yet to confirm strike as government-allied forces in Yemen claim successful offensive to retake Bab al-Mandab strait Yemen's Houthis have launched a missile attack on Riyadh
NewsBlast reported at Saudi Arabia's Riyadh Airport
Deutsche Welle
Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport has already been targeted multiple times this week amid intensified fighting between Yemen-based Houthi rebels and a Saudi-backed coalition.
News12 killed, hundreds injured in Saudi airport attack
SCMP
The third attack this week on Riyadh's international airport on Saturday left at least 12 people dead and more than 300 wounded, Saudi authorities said, and the Iran-backed Houthis claimed responsibil
OddsPolymarket: "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?" at 14%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 85%). [basis: absence] GDELT search_news unavailable; two differently phrased web searches covering late September to early October 2026 for Iranian Hormuz vessel seizure, mine-laying, shipping harassment, interference and attacks returned zero in-window results. No affirmative confirmation was obtained.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 85%). [basis: absence] GDELT search_news was unavailable; two differently phrased web searches for Iranian naval harassment, vessel seizure, jamming, mining and armed shipping incidents in late September–early October returned zero in-window results. No in-window affirmative confirmation was obtained. Thi
OddsPolymarket: "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?" at 6%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
OddsPolymarket: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?" at 8%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
OddsPolymarket: "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?" at 7%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.