Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping

Latest first

1. Tuesday, 29 September 20267 updates

   • 10:30News

     NewsSaudi Arabia Restarts Red Sea Crude Oil Loadings

     OilPrice

     Saudi Arabia has restarted crude oil loadings at the Yanbu port on the Red Sea after the East-West pipeline resumed partial service, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing vessel-tracking data and trade

   • 09:59Odds

     OddsPolymarket: "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" at 22%

     Polymarket

     First tracked price for this market.

   • 05:19News

     NewsOil Extends Rally Despite Higher Hormuz Volume Reports

     OilPrice

     Crude oil prices extended a climb that began on Monday, despite reports that oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz have improved considerably since the start of September. At the time of writing, Brent c

   • 04:46News

     NewsRubio, Saudi Arabia's foreign minister hold talks on Yemen, Hormuz Strait

     Al Jazeera

   • 01:00News

     NewsMiddle East Oil Exports Rebound as Iran's Chokehold on Hormuz Breaks Down - WSJ

     wsj.com

   • 00:15Resolved

     ResolvedIran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct at least one new confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 10 days, coinciding with the autumnal equinox/Yom Kippur War anniversary convergence window on September 19.

     Resolved as expired (forecast at 66%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

   • 00:00News

     NewsHormuz Rerouting Doubles Cape Traffic Without Delivering a Windfall

     OilPrice

     Over the past seven months, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dwindled to a trickle, with Iran effectively closing the critical maritime chokepoint ever since the U.S. and Israel launc

2. Monday, 28 September 202610 updates

   • 22:13News

     NewsIran officials renew call for deal to open Hormuz despite Trump's peace plan rejection

     Washington Times

     Iran's foreign minister met with mediators on Monday in New York City to review the latest proposals from both sides and exchange views about the current state of his country's war with the U.S. and I

   • 17:43News

     NewsIran touts Hormuz attacks as oil flows increase despite tensions

     Al Jazeera

   • 16:20News

3. Sunday, 27 September 20269 updates

   • 23:58News

     NewsBrent crude tops $108 as Trump rejects Iranian proposal to reopen Hormuz Strait - CNBC

     CNBC

   • 21:16News

     NewsInside Yemen's front-line city as Houthis battle for control - BBC

     bbc.com

   • 18:37News

4. Saturday, 26 September 20261 update

   • 06:18Resolved

     ResolvedIran will impose a formal, complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial tanker traffic (beyond harassment/mine incidents already confirmed).

     Resolved as a miss (forecast at 16%). [basis: absence] Two differently-phrased searches ('Iran declares Strait of Hormuz closed to all shipping' and 'Iran blocks Strait of Hormuz war news') within the evidence window (2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21) found no wire/official-tier confirmation of a formal complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz

5. Friday, 25 September 20266 updates

   • 18:17Resolved

     ResolvedHouthi forces will conduct at least one confirmed attack (missile, drone, or vessel seizure attempt) on commercial or naval shipping in the Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb corridor within 14 days.

     Resolved as a hit (forecast at 78%). Wire-tier Reuters (Sept 17, 2026): 'Saudis and Houthis exchange strikes, Yemenis flee by boat as Middle East war spreads' confirms actual Houthi missile/strike activity within the Sept 6-20 window. Wire-tier Al Jazeera (Sept 13, 2026): 'Red Sea nations watch as Houthis seize Bab al-Mandeb strait' co

   • 12:18Resolved

     ResolvedIran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct at least one additional confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days, continuing the confirmed pattern of prior windows.

     Resolved as a hit (forecast at 79%). Reuters (wire tier, Sep 9, 2026, within window): 'Iran and US hit tankers in biggest wave of attacks on shipping since war began' - confirms a completed incident of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz region. Additional corroboration: Al Jazeera (wire tier, Sep 9) 'Why US-Iran war over Hormuz is

6. Thursday, 24 September 20264 updates

   • 11:33Forecast

     ForecastThe United States will conduct a publicly confirmed military strike against Houthi targets in Yemen within 14 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.

   • 09:33Forecast

     ForecastIran will conduct a direct military or paramilitary action in the Strait of Hormuz (mine deployment, vessel seizure, or armed confrontation with a commercial or naval vessel) within 30 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-24.

   • 02:33Forecast

     Forecast

7. Wednesday, 23 September 20262 updates

   • 01:32Forecast

     ForecastThe US will officially announce an end to the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by September 30, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

     NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-09-30.

   • 01:32Forecast

     ForecastStrait of Hormuz shipping traffic will return to pre-crisis normal levels by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

     NEXUS forecast: 37% probability, resolves by 2027-01-01.

8. Tuesday, 22 September 20267 updates

   • 06:00Resolved

     ResolvedThe United States will announce an end to the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by September 14, 2026.

     Resolved as expired (forecast at 5%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

   • 04:33Forecast

     ForecastIran will conduct a direct military or paramilitary action in the Strait of Hormuz (vessel seizure, harassment, mine-laying, or similar incident) within 30 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-22.

   • 04:33Forecast

     Forecast

9. Monday, 21 September 20265 updates

   • 10:33Forecast

     ForecastIran will conduct a confirmed naval harassment, mine-laying, or vessel-seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-05.

   • 08:33Forecast

     ForecastDAL (Delta Air Lines) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as elevated Hormuz-linked oil price risk and risk-off travel demand pressure fuel-cost-sensitive airline equities (target below $75.64, 5% from $79.62 at creation)

     NEXUS forecast: 68% probability, resolves by 2026-10-05.

   • 08:33Forecast

10. Saturday, 19 September 20262 updates

    • 07:34Forecast

      ForecastIran will conduct a confirmed naval harassment incident (vessel seizure, GPS jamming, or armed confrontation) in or near the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-03.

    • 01:33Forecast

      ForecastThe US Navy will conduct a new publicly reported convoy escort or naval defense operation against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-19.

11. Friday, 18 September 20262 updates

    • 09:34Forecast

      ForecastExxonMobil (XOM) will close at least 5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as Hormuz escalation risk (67% probability) and a fragile OPEC+ cut equilibrium support elevated crude prices (target above $171.43, 5% from $163.27 at creation)

      NEXUS forecast: 78% probability, resolves by 2026-10-02.

    • 04:33Forecast

      ForecastIran or a proxy actor will conduct a kinetic incident (vessel harassment, mine deployment, or seizure attempt) in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-18.

12. Thursday, 17 September 20261 update

    • 04:33Forecast

      ForecastA confirmed disruption incident (vessel seizure, mine strike, or blockade attempt) will occur in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days

      NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-17.

13. Wednesday, 16 September 20261 update

    • 01:33Forecast

      ForecastIran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a new confirmed harassment, mine-laying, or vessel-seizure incident specifically within the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-09-30.

14. Monday, 14 September 20262 updates

    • 06:33Forecast

      ForecastHouthi forces will conduct a new confirmed attack on commercial or naval shipping in the Red Sea or Bab-el-Mandeb Strait within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 71% probability, resolves by 2026-09-28.

    • 05:33Forecast

      ForecastIran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a new confirmed harassment, boarding, or seizure incident against a non-US-flagged commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 70% probability, resolves by 2026-09-28.

15. Sunday, 13 September 20262 updates

    • 07:33Forecast

      ForecastIran will publicly reject or suspend participation in the US-Oman diplomatic framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 59% probability, resolves by 2026-09-27.

    • 03:33Forecast

      ForecastA new confirmed attack on commercial shipping in the Red Sea (Houthi-linked) will occur within 30 days, coinciding with the October 7 anniversary convergence window (Rosh Chodesh Cheshvan, Oct 7).

      NEXUS forecast: 69% probability, resolves by 2026-10-13.

16. Saturday, 12 September 20264 updates

    • 18:33Forecast

      ForecastIran or Iranian state media will issue a formal announcement of an actual (not merely threatened) temporary restriction or closure of the Strait of Hormuz to a category of commercial shipping within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 49% probability, resolves by 2026-09-26.

    • 15:05Resolved

      ResolvedExxon Mobil (XOM) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as sustained Hormuz-driven crude price support lifts major integrated energy producers (target above $165.85, 4% from $159.47 at creation)

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 43%). Early-confirmed: XOM hit target above 165.85 on 2026-09-11. Current price: 165.99 (started at 159.47).

    • 13:33Forecast

17. Friday, 11 September 20264 updates

    • 14:32Forecast

      ForecastThe US Navy will conduct or publicly announce a naval escort, convoy, or freedom-of-navigation operation in or near the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 33% probability, resolves by 2026-09-25.

    • 05:35Forecast

      ForecastIran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct at least one new confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 10 days, coinciding with the autumnal equinox/Yom Kippur War anniversary convergence window on September 19.

      NEXUS forecast: 66% probability, resolves by 2026-09-21.

    • 03:33Forecast

18. Thursday, 10 September 20263 updates

    • 21:32Forecast

      ForecastIran will impose new formal restrictions (fines, confiscation threats, or transit fees) on foreign tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days, extending the confirmed pattern of harassment incidents.

      NEXUS forecast: 36% probability, resolves by 2026-09-24.

    • 13:33Forecast

      ForecastThe United Nations or a G7/UNGA-linked multilateral forum will issue a formal statement or resolution addressing the Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption during the UN General Assembly session within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 57% probability, resolves by 2026-09-24.

    • 10:34Forecast

19. Wednesday, 9 September 20264 updates

    • 19:33Forecast

      ForecastStrait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by December 31, 2026.

      NEXUS forecast: 17% probability, resolves by 2026-12-31.

    • 15:33Forecast

      ForecastThe US Navy will conduct a publicly confirmed escort or interdiction operation for commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 62% probability, resolves by 2026-09-23.

    • 06:34Forecast

      Forecast

20. Tuesday, 8 September 20263 updates

    • 16:33Forecast

      ForecastIran will publicly announce a formal restriction, blockade, or targeted denial of Strait of Hormuz passage to a specific flagged nation's shipping within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 22% probability, resolves by 2026-09-22.

    • 15:33Forecast

      ForecastA G7 government or senior United Nations official will publicly call for de-escalation or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz during the UN General Assembly session convening in September 2026, within 21 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 74% probability, resolves by 2026-09-29.

    • 02:33Forecast

      Forecast

21. Monday, 7 September 20263 updates

    • 20:33Forecast

      ForecastIsrael will close its airspace (in whole or in part) by September 30, 2026, consistent with the wartime regime, zero-bargaining-range Iran nuclear Fearon failure, and the 67% Hormuz escalation probability compounding audience-cost pressure ahead of the October 7 anniversary window.

      NEXUS forecast: 17% probability, resolves by 2026-09-30.

    • 16:33Forecast

      ForecastOPEC+ will convene an emergency, non-scheduled ministerial meeting within 30 days in direct response to Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions.

      NEXUS forecast: 46% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.

    • 03:33Forecast

22. Sunday, 6 September 20267 updates

    • 13:47Forecast

      ForecastDelta Air Lines (DAL) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as Hormuz-driven jet fuel cost pressure weighs on airline margins (target below $76.16, 5% from $80.17 at creation)

      NEXUS forecast: 33% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.

    • 13:47Forecast

      ForecastExxon Mobil (XOM) will close at least 4% above its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as sustained Hormuz-driven crude price support lifts major integrated energy producers (target above $165.85, 4% from $159.47 at creation)

      NEXUS forecast: 43% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.

    • 13:36Forecast

23. Saturday, 5 September 20261 update

    • 00:03Resolved

      ResolvedUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $145.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability (67%) and prior confirmed harassment/mine/seizure incidents sustain the oil war-premium beyond the current $134.67 level.

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 7%). Data-resolved: USO moved from 134.67 to 141.96 (5.41%) during 2026-08-22 to 2026-09-05. Target: above 145. Target not reached. High was 143.46.

24. Sunday, 30 August 20262 updates

    • 15:02Forecast

      ForecastWTI crude futures (CL) will close above $95.00 per barrel on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed pattern of Hormuz mine deployments, vessel seizures, and tanker harassment (3+ distinct incidents confirmed in the prior 14-day window) sustains upward pressure on crude from the current ~$90.75 level.

      NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-09-13.

    • 15:00Resolved

      ResolvedICE Brent crude oil futures (BZ) will close above $90 per barrel on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruption (tanker seizures, mine incident) and 67% escalation probability sustain elevated crude pricing despite the Bayesian 'sufficient bargaining range' framing.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 5%). get_market_price tool returned an ETF-proxy price series for 'BZ' (values ~$15-18) which is inconsistent with actual Brent crude pricing and cannot be used per instrument-mismatch rules. However, multiple independent news reports within the evidence window directly report the actual Brent spot/futur

25. Saturday, 29 August 20261 update

    • 06:01Resolved

      ResolvedIran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct at least one additional confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days, continuing the pattern already confirmed in the prior evidence window.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 41%). Multiple wire-tier (Reuters) reports confirm ongoing incidents within the window: 'UAE says Iran attacked ADNOC vessel in Hormuz, urges waterway's reopening' (Reuters, 2026-08-15); 'Shipping slows through Strait of Hormuz after tanker attacks, data shows' (Reuters, 2026-08-16, past-tense confirmatio

26. Thursday, 27 August 20261 update

    • 00:01Resolved

      ResolvedSPY will close below $745.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off conditions (Fear & Greed 38, confirmed Hormuz disruption, zero-bargaining-range Iran-nuclear Fearon failure) extend the equity drawdown beyond the current oversold bounce.

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 15%). Data-resolved: SPY moved from 777.88 to 766.08 (-1.52%) during 2026-08-13 to 2026-08-27. Target: below 745. Target not reached. Low was 762.04.

27. Saturday, 22 August 20261 update

    • 06:01Forecast

      ForecastUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $145.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability (67%) and prior confirmed harassment/mine/seizure incidents sustain the oil war-premium beyond the current $134.67 level.

      NEXUS forecast: 7% probability, resolves by 2026-09-05.

28. Friday, 21 August 20261 update

    • 00:01Resolved

      ResolvedUSD/SGD will trade above 1.32 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as Singapore's exposure to disrupted Hormuz/Malacca trade routing and elevated freight costs weighs on the Singapore dollar amid broader wartime risk-off capital flows.

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 27%). Data-resolved: USDSGD moved from 1.28 to 1.27 (-0.57%) during 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-21. Target: above 1.32. Target not reached. High was 1.28.

29. Thursday, 20 August 20262 updates

    • 20:00Resolved

      ResolvedGLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close above $415.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as continued Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) and confirmed Hormuz mine/seizure incidents sustain safe-haven demand beyond the current $402.54 level.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 23%). Early-confirmed: GLD hit target above 415 on 2026-08-20. Current price: 415.26 (started at 402.54).

    • 00:01Resolved

      ResolvedUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close below $108.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the emerging US-Iran-Oman diplomatic framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (reported NYT wire 2026-08-04) unwinds the war-premium that drove USO from $114.88 (current) to a prior high above $130.

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 16%). Data-resolved: USO moved from 114.88 to 130.91 (13.95%) during 2026-08-06 to 2026-08-20. Target: below 108. Target not reached. Low was 116.19.

30. Wednesday, 19 August 20261 update

    • 15:00Resolved

      ResolvedUSD/CHF will trade below 0.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off capital flows rotate into the Swiss franc amid confirmed Hormuz chokepoint disruption and the 80% overall escalation risk score.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 12%). Early-confirmed: USDCHF hit target below 0.8 on 2026-08-19. Current price: 0.80 (started at 0.81).

31. Sunday, 16 August 20261 update

    • 15:03Forecast

      ForecastICE Brent crude oil futures (BZ) will close above $90 per barrel on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruption (tanker seizures, mine incident) and 67% escalation probability sustain elevated crude pricing despite the Bayesian 'sufficient bargaining range' framing.

      NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-08-30.

32. Saturday, 15 August 20261 update

    • 06:04Forecast

      ForecastIran or Iran-aligned forces will conduct at least one additional confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days, continuing the pattern already confirmed in the prior evidence window.

      NEXUS forecast: 41% probability, resolves by 2026-08-29.

33. Thursday, 13 August 20261 update

    • 15:03Forecast

      ForecastSPY will close below $745.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off conditions (Fear & Greed 38, confirmed Hormuz disruption, zero-bargaining-range Iran-nuclear Fearon failure) extend the equity drawdown beyond the current oversold bounce.

      NEXUS forecast: 15% probability, resolves by 2026-08-27.

34. Tuesday, 11 August 20261 update

    • 06:02Forecast

      ForecastGLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close above $415.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as continued Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) and confirmed Hormuz mine/seizure incidents sustain safe-haven demand beyond the current $402.54 level.

      NEXUS forecast: 23% probability, resolves by 2026-08-25.

35. Monday, 10 August 20261 update

    • 15:03Forecast

      ForecastUSD/CHF will trade below 0.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off capital flows rotate into the Swiss franc amid confirmed Hormuz chokepoint disruption and the 80% overall escalation risk score.

      NEXUS forecast: 12% probability, resolves by 2026-08-24.

36. Friday, 7 August 20261 update

    • 15:03Forecast

      ForecastUSD/SGD will trade above 1.32 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as Singapore's exposure to disrupted Hormuz/Malacca trade routing and elevated freight costs weighs on the Singapore dollar amid broader wartime risk-off capital flows.

      NEXUS forecast: 27% probability, resolves by 2026-08-21.

37. Thursday, 6 August 20262 updates

    • 06:03Forecast

      ForecastUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close below $108.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the emerging US-Iran-Oman diplomatic framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (reported NYT wire 2026-08-04) unwinds the war-premium that drove USO from $114.88 (current) to a prior high above $130.

      NEXUS forecast: 16% probability, resolves by 2026-08-20.

    • 06:01Resolved

      ResolvedA confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident involving commercial or naval shipping will occur in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 23%). Multiple corroborating reports confirm the crisis materialized within the window: Reuters (wire, 2026-07-23) 'Add a month at sea and $2.5 million - what it costs oil tankers to flee Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb' confirms tankers actively evading the strait due to danger. TradeWinds and Marine Insight (2

38. Sunday, 2 August 20261 update

    • 06:00Resolved

      ResolvedHouthi forces will conduct at least one confirmed attack (missile, drone, or vessel seizure attempt) on commercial or naval shipping in the Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb corridor within 14 days.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 22%). Reuters (wire tier), July 27 2026: 'Red Sea shipping slows after Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia, data shows'. Al Jazeera (wire tier), July 28 2026: 'Yemen's Houthis claim missile attack on Saudi Arabia oil tanker'. Both within the evidence window (2026-07-19 to 2026-08-02), confirming a completed mis

39. Wednesday, 29 July 20261 update

    • 15:00Resolved

      ResolvedUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $130.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range remains fragile (50%, 67% escalation probability) and Iran nuclear zero-bargaining-range failure sustains upward oil price momentum already evidenced by the +5.9% move from $117.79 to $124.76 in the prior 14-day window.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 5%). Early-confirmed: USO hit target above 130 on 2026-07-29. Current price: 130.02 (started at 124.76).

40. Tuesday, 28 July 20262 updates

    • 06:02Forecast

      ForecastUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $130.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range remains fragile (50%, 67% escalation probability) and Iran nuclear zero-bargaining-range failure sustains upward oil price momentum already evidenced by the +5.9% move from $117.79 to $124.76 in the prior 14-day window.

      NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-08-11.

    • 00:00Resolved

      ResolvedUSO will close below $112.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days, as the Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range remains sufficient for agreement (50%) despite 67% escalation probability, continuing the historical pattern of oil failing to spike on Hormuz rhetoric.

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 6%). Data-resolved: USO moved from 117.79 to 124.76 (5.92%) during 2026-07-14 to 2026-07-28. Target: below 112. Target not reached. Low was 117.73.

41. Thursday, 23 July 20261 update

    • 06:01Forecast

      ForecastA confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident involving commercial or naval shipping will occur in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 23% probability, resolves by 2026-08-06.

42. Sunday, 19 July 20261 update

    • 06:02Forecast

      ForecastHouthi forces will conduct at least one confirmed attack (missile, drone, or vessel seizure attempt) on commercial or naval shipping in the Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb corridor within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 22% probability, resolves by 2026-08-02.

43. Tuesday, 14 July 20261 update

    • 06:02Forecast

      ForecastUSO will close below $112.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days, as the Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range remains sufficient for agreement (50%) despite 67% escalation probability, continuing the historical pattern of oil failing to spike on Hormuz rhetoric.

      NEXUS forecast: 6% probability, resolves by 2026-07-28.

44. Thursday, 9 July 20263 updates

    • 15:01Resolved

      ResolvedAt least one G7 member country will announce emergency strategic petroleum reserve coordination or bilateral energy security agreement within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz 67% escalation probability forces coordinated supply chain defense

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 25%). [basis: absence] Searched multiple queries ('G7 strategic petroleum reserve coordination Strait of Hormuz June 2026', 'G7 bilateral energy security agreement oil supply emergency 2026') within the 2026-06-06 to 2026-07-06 evidence window. No official or wire-tier source reported any G7 member announ

    • 15:00Resolved

      ResolvedEuropean natural gas futures (TTF) will close above €50/MWh on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation probability of 67% forces emergency LNG procurement at premium pricing

      Resolved as expired (forecast at 10%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

    • 15:00

45. Sunday, 7 June 20261 update

    • 06:05Forecast

      ForecastMalaysia will announce at least one emergency maritime security measure or naval patrol enhancement in the Strait of Malacca within 14 days as wartime regime energy supply disruption risks force chokepoint protection escalation amid 67% Hormuz escalation probability spillover effects

      NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-06-21.

46. Saturday, 6 June 20261 update

    • 06:05Forecast

      ForecastAt least one G7 member country will announce emergency strategic petroleum reserve coordination or bilateral energy security agreement within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz 67% escalation probability forces coordinated supply chain defense

      NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-07-06.

47. Tuesday, 2 June 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedWTI crude oil futures will close above $160 per barrel on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as confirmed wartime regime supply disruption combines with zero stable equilibria in Strait of Hormuz Crisis to force sustained energy price shock

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 26%). WTI crude oil futures data from 2026-05-19 to 2026-06-02 shows highest closing price was $107.77 on May 19, 2026. Daily closes: May 19: $107.77, May 20: $98.26, May 21: $96.35, May 22: $96.60, May 26: $93.89, May 27: $88.68, May 28: $88.90, May 29: $87.36, Jun 1: $92.16, Jun 2: $91.28. Actual highes

48. Monday, 1 June 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedNorth Korea will conduct at least one ballistic missile test or nuclear facility announcement within 14 days as Day of the Sun (DPRK) Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence and 67% Hormuz escalation probability create domestic legitimacy pressure for regime demonstration

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 25%). Multiple sources confirm North Korea ballistic missile test on May 26, 2026 within evidence window: 'North Korea fires short-range ballistic missile and other weapons toward sea' (CBS News, May 26), 'North Korea fires ballistic missile into Yellow Sea' (Japan Times, May 26), 'North Korea fired proje

49. Wednesday, 27 May 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedAt least one major European country will announce emergency natural gas storage rationing or industrial curtailment measures within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation probability of 67% combines with wartime energy supply disruptions

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 25%). Search within prediction window 2026-05-13 to 2026-05-27 found only 1 result: 'Strait of Hormuz Closure: The Global Oil Supply Crisis Explained' dated 2026-05-22. This discusses oil supply crisis but does not mention any European country announcing emergency natural gas rationing or industrial curta

50. Thursday, 21 May 20261 update

    • 06:05Forecast

      ForecastEuropean natural gas futures (TTF) will close above €50/MWh on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation probability of 67% forces emergency LNG procurement at premium pricing

      NEXUS forecast: 10% probability, resolves by 2026-06-20.

51. Tuesday, 19 May 20261 update

    • 06:04Forecast

      ForecastWTI crude oil futures will close above $160 per barrel on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as confirmed wartime regime supply disruption combines with zero stable equilibria in Strait of Hormuz Crisis to force sustained energy price shock

      NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-06-02.

52. Monday, 18 May 20261 update

    • 15:20Forecast

      ForecastNorth Korea will conduct at least one ballistic missile test or nuclear facility announcement within 14 days as Day of the Sun (DPRK) Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence and 67% Hormuz escalation probability create domestic legitimacy pressure for regime demonstration

      NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-06-01.

53. Wednesday, 13 May 20262 updates

    • 06:05Forecast

      ForecastAt least one major European country will announce emergency natural gas storage rationing or industrial curtailment measures within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation probability of 67% combines with wartime energy supply disruptions

      NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-05-27.

    • 00:00Resolved

      ResolvedEuropean banking sector ETF (SX7E proxy via EUFN) will decline below $20.00 per share on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz disruptions force emergency liquidity measures and credit tightening

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 10%). Data-resolved: EUFN moved from 36.99 to 37.55 (1.51%) during 2026-04-29 to 2026-05-13. Target: below 20. Target not reached. Low was 36.60.

54. Monday, 11 May 20261 update

    • 00:00Resolved

      ResolvedNatural gas futures (UNG) will close above $15.00 per share on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as European energy rationing accelerates beyond current ECB policy response capacity following confirmed Strait of Hormuz supply disruption

      Resolved as a partial (forecast at 10%). Data-resolved: UNG moved from 10.31 to 10.57 (2.52%) during 2026-04-27 to 2026-05-11. Target: above 15. Target not reached. High was 11.08.

55. Sunday, 10 May 20261 update

    • 00:00Resolved

      ResolvedEUR/USD will trade below 1.0500 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as European energy crisis from confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruptions forces ECB dovish pivot while Fed maintains hawkish stance amid zero stable equilibria

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 25%). Data-resolved: EUR/USD moved from 1.17 to 1.18 (0.58%) during 2026-04-26 to 2026-05-10. Target: below 1.05. Target not reached. Low was 1.17.

56. Friday, 1 May 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedBrent crude oil will close above $115 per barrel on at least 4 trading days within 30 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive operations and Hormuz chokepoint threats create sustained supply disruption premium despite SPR releases

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 10%). Brent crude (BZ=F) price data shows closes during evidence window April 1-May 1: Apr 1: $101.16, Apr 2: $109.03, Apr 6: $109.77, Apr 7: $109.27, Apr 8: $94.75, Apr 9: $95.92, Apr 10: $95.20, Apr 13: $99.36, Apr 14: $94.79, Apr 15: $94.93, Apr 16: $99.39, Apr 17: $90.38, Apr 20: $95.48, Apr 21: $98.4

57. Wednesday, 29 April 20262 updates

    • 22:29Forecast

      ForecastEuropean banking sector ETF (SX7E proxy via EUFN) will decline below $20.00 per share on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz disruptions force emergency liquidity measures and credit tightening

      NEXUS forecast: 10% probability, resolves by 2026-05-13.

    • 06:05Resolved

      ResolvedAustralian Dollar (AUD/USD) will strengthen above 0.6850 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as confirmed Hormuz Strait closure drives global commodity demand toward Australian iron ore and energy exports while creating safe-haven flows to non-Middle East producers

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 63%). AUD/USD daily closes from March 30 to April 29, 2026: Closes above 0.6850: March 31 (0.6921), April 1 (0.6924), April 2 (0.6911), April 6 (0.6917), April 7 (0.7077), April 8 (0.7039), April 9 (0.7076), April 13 (0.7099), April 14 (0.7129), April 15 (0.7176), April 16 (0.7159), April 19 (0.7135), Apr

58. Monday, 27 April 20262 updates

    • 06:06Forecast

      ForecastNatural gas futures (UNG) will close above $15.00 per share on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as European energy rationing accelerates beyond current ECB policy response capacity following confirmed Strait of Hormuz supply disruption

      NEXUS forecast: 10% probability, resolves by 2026-05-11.

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedAustralian Dollar futures (6A) will trade above 0.6800 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as confirmed Hormuz closure drives commodity demand and China gray zone escalation paradoxically benefits resource exporters through supply scarcity premiums

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 52%). THRESHOLD MET: AUD/USD data during evidence window (2026-03-28 to 2026-04-27) shows multiple days above 0.6800. Specific examples: 2026-04-07 high 0.7083, close 0.7077; 2026-04-08 high 0.7086; 2026-04-09 high 0.7093, close 0.7076; 2026-04-13 high 0.7148, close 0.7099; 2026-04-14 high 0.7167, close 0

59. Sunday, 26 April 20261 update

    • 06:06Forecast

      ForecastEUR/USD will trade below 1.0500 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as European energy crisis from confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruptions forces ECB dovish pivot while Fed maintains hawkish stance amid zero stable equilibria

      NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-05-10.

60. Saturday, 25 April 20261 update

    • 06:03Resolved

      ResolvedBaltic Dry Index (BDI) will fall below 1,100 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruptions reroute global shipping flows and create tonnage misallocation

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 34%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation.

61. Friday, 24 April 20262 updates

    • 06:03Resolved

      ResolvedNatural gas storage levels in the EU will be reported at below 40% capacity within 30 days as confirmed Hormuz disruptions and Iran infrastructure attacks force accelerated strategic reserve drawdowns

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 39%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation.

    • 06:03Resolved

      ResolvedCotton futures will close above $0.80 per pound on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Red Sea shipping disruptions and agricultural supply chain concerns create commodity price pressure

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 35%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation.

62. Wednesday, 22 April 20262 updates

    • 06:05Resolved

      ResolvedThe Baltic Dry Index will decline below 1,000 points within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Red Sea shipping tensions force cargo rerouting around Africa, increasing voyage times and reducing shipping demand efficiency

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 9%). Baltic Dry Index data shows opposite direction. April 16 report: 'Baltic Dry Index hits 2,484 points on ninth straight gain' and 'capesize spot rates hit highest levels this year' (April 15). Index was rising, not declining, and well above 1,000 threshold. Actual: 2,484 points, Required: below 1,000

    • 06:05Resolved

      ResolvedSwiss Franc (USD/CHF) will strengthen below 0.88 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as wartime regime drives safe-haven flows to traditional neutral currency amid Hormuz closure risks

      Resolved as a partial (forecast at 64%). USD/CHF data shows the pair was below 0.88 throughout the entire prediction window (March 23-April 22). March 23 close: 0.7878, lowest point April 13: 0.7789, final close April 22: 0.7798. Condition met on ALL trading days (30+ days), far exceeding the 2-day requirement. However, threshold_met=false

63. Sunday, 19 April 20262 updates

    • 06:06Resolved

      ResolvedIndonesian Rupiah (IDR/USD) will weaken above 0.000065 (below 15,385 USD/IDR) on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz Crisis Nash equilibrium (67% escalation probability) threatens regional shipping lanes

      Resolved as a partial (forecast at 66%). IDR/USD price data shows current price of 0.000058346 as of April 19, 2026. Examining daily closes from March 20-April 19: all values ranged from 0.000058162 to 0.000059425, with the highest close being 0.000059294 on March 23. Actual highest: 0.000059425, Required: 0.000065, 0.000059425 < 0.000065

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedAt least 3 emerging market central banks will announce emergency foreign exchange interventions within 30 days as wartime regime dollar strength and 67% Hormuz escalation probability create currency crisis conditions

      Resolved as a partial (forecast at 19%). Search results show FX interventions during March 20 - April 19 period: 1) Bangladesh Bank bought $70m from banks (April 15), 2) India's central bank implemented rupee arbitrage curbs and intervention measures (March 30, April 1). Evidence shows at least 2 central bank actions but falls short of req

64. Saturday, 18 April 20261 update

    • 06:03Resolved

      ResolvedBaltic Dry Index will trade above 1,800 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz closure forces cargo rerouting through longer alternative routes

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 56%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation.

65. Friday, 17 April 20262 updates

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedAluminum futures (AL) will close above $2,400 per metric ton on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz brinkmanship (67% escalation probability) and China infrastructure stimulus drive industrial metals demand

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 6%). Web search results show 'LME Aluminium Cash Prices Soar Through $3,300/Tonne' dated March 27, 2026, within evidence window March 16 - April 15, 2026. Actual: $3,300, Required: $2,400. $3,300 > $2,400 therefore threshold met. Multiple articles confirm aluminum price surge during the period due to Ira

    • 06:03Resolved

      ResolvedThe MSCI World Energy Index will outperform MSCI World by more than 8 percentage points within 14 days as confirmed Hormuz supply disruption creates energy sector rotation

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 77%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation.

66. Wednesday, 15 April 20265 updates

    • 06:08Resolved

      ResolvedAt least 2 major shipping companies will announce permanent Red Sea route abandonment or force majeure declarations within 14 days

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 45%). Found one article from April 3, 2026 about 'Carriers warned against misuse of force majeure clauses' but no specific announcements of major shipping companies declaring permanent Red Sea route abandonment or force majeure within the April 1-15 window. Extensive searches found no evidence of the requ

    • 06:08Resolved

      ResolvedMalaysia will announce emergency maritime security measures or Strait of Malacca patrol enhancements within 14 days as Hormuz Crisis escalation probability of 67% forces alternative chokepoint protection amid wartime regime

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 13%). Searched extensively for Malaysia maritime security announcements between April 1-15, 2026. Found only one tangential result about 'Protect Strait of Hormuz Energy Flow Security Guide' from April 1, but no specific Malaysian government announcements of emergency maritime security measures or Strait