Signal convergence: Erev Rosh Hashana + UN General Assembly (intensity 5/5, 2026-09-10) coincides with the confirmed Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability of 67% and multiple confirmed Hormuz incidents (mine, seizure, harassment) in prior weeks, creating diplomatic pressure for a UNGA-linked statement. Policy_action/geopolitical base rate is 20%, adjusted modestly upward for signal density.

Probability: 57%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 245d ago
Made: Sep 10

Price Target$14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.