Iran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a new confirmed harassment, mine-laying, or vessel-seizure incident specifically within the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-16 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

Bayesian Hormuz Crisis analysis: escalation probability 67%, bargaining range technically 'sufficient' but Iran IRGC actor intelligence shows active escalation mode following senior naval leadership losses and explicit threats against US infrastructure. Confidence moderated below the raw 67% given red-team caution that historical base rates of actual strait disruption are low and escalation scores can be inflated.

Probability

85%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 30in 1d

Made

Sep 16

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.