Civic Platform (GP) will gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election, resolving the Polymarket question (ID 1130018) as YES.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-16 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

Crowd market prices this at 0% YES; intelligence base (Russia Kremlin actor intelligence showing entrenched aggressive military posture with legislative backing) supports near-total improbability of an opposition-aligned party topping seats. We hold a marginally non-zero view (5%) reflecting irreducible uncertainty rather than a genuine belief in an upset.

Probability

5%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 30in 1d

Made

Sep 16

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.