Iran will publicly announce or be confirmed via IAEA reporting to have increased uranium enrichment beyond 90% purity within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-16 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-16.

Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining range has collapsed to 0% (structural conflict conditions), with Bayesian escalation probability 20% and no stable equilibrium — commitment/information failures favor a unilateral enrichment escalation signal.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 16in 17d
Made: Sep 16

Price Target$90

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The IAEA or a major intelligence source will report a new significant escalation in Iran's nuclear program, such as enrichment beyond agreed thresholds or restricted inspector access, within 30 days

geopolitical85%

The IAEA will report that Iran has enriched uranium beyond the 60% purity threshold, a new escalation marker, within 30 days.

geopolitical14%

Iran will announce a new uranium enrichment escalation measure (raising enrichment levels or restricting IAEA inspector access) within 30 days.

geopolitical25%

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Iran will publicly announce or be confirmed via IAEA reporting to have increased uranium enrichment beyond 90% purity within 30 days

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