Iran will announce a new uranium enrichment escalation measure (raising enrichment levels or restricting IAEA inspector access) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 25% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-11.

Bayesian Iran Nuclear Breakout analysis shows a 0% Fearon bargaining range (structural conflict conditions), bearish market assessment at 60% confidence, and critical fracture risk in the Iran-Israel coalition, indicating continued unilateral escalatory moves by Iran are likely.

Probability: 25%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 11in 12d
Made: Sep 11

Price Target$30

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will formally suspend or terminate participation in nuclear negotiations with the IAEA or E3 group within 30 days.

geopolitical58%

Iran will publicly announce a suspension or new restriction on IAEA inspection access within 30 days.

geopolitical23%

The IAEA will report that Iran has enriched uranium beyond the 60% purity threshold, a new escalation marker, within 30 days.

geopolitical14%

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Iran will formally suspend or restrict IAEA inspector access to at least one declared nuclear facility within 30 days.

geopolitical53%

Iran will announce a new uranium enrichment escalation measure (raising enrichment levels or restricting IAEA inspector access) within 30 days.

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