Iran will publicly announce a suspension or new restriction on IAEA inspection access within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 23% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-10.

Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis shows a 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure), meaning structural conditions favor continued non-cooperation; this is a distinct diplomatic-track catalyst from the already-tracked kinetic Hormuz incidents.

Probability: 23%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 10in 11d
Made: Sep 10

Price Target$30

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will formally suspend or terminate participation in nuclear negotiations with the IAEA or E3 group within 30 days.

geopolitical58%

Iran will announce a new uranium enrichment escalation measure (raising enrichment levels or restricting IAEA inspector access) within 30 days.

geopolitical25%

Iran will formally suspend or restrict IAEA inspector access to at least one declared nuclear facility within 30 days.

geopolitical53%

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Iran will publicly announce a suspension or new restriction on IAEA inspection access within 30 days.

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