The IAEA will report that Iran has enriched uranium beyond the 60% purity threshold, a new escalation marker, within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-14 at 14% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-14.

Derived from: Bayesian Iran Nuclear Breakout analysis showing a 0% Fearon bargaining range (structural conflict likely, no stable equilibrium) and 30% coalition stability with critical fracture risk between Iran and Israel, bearish 60% confidence market assessment.

Probability: 14%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 14in 15d
Made: Sep 14

Price Target$60

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will publicly announce or be confirmed via IAEA reporting to have increased uranium enrichment beyond 90% purity within 30 days

geopolitical5%

Iran will announce a new uranium enrichment escalation measure (raising enrichment levels or restricting IAEA inspector access) within 30 days.

geopolitical25%

The IAEA or a major intelligence source will report a new significant escalation in Iran's nuclear program, such as enrichment beyond agreed thresholds or restricted inspector access, within 30 days

geopolitical85%

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The IAEA will report that Iran has enriched uranium beyond the 60% purity threshold, a new escalation marker, within 30 days.

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