Iran will formally suspend or terminate participation in nuclear negotiations with the IAEA or E3 group within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 58% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-10.

Bayesian Iran Nuclear Breakout analysis: Fearon bargaining range has collapsed to 0% (structural conflict conditions), bearish market assessment at 60% confidence, indicating no stable diplomatic equilibrium exists and negotiation breakdown is structurally likely.

Probability: 58%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 10in 11d
Made: Sep 10

Price Target$3

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will publicly announce a suspension or new restriction on IAEA inspection access within 30 days.

geopolitical23%

Iran will announce a new uranium enrichment escalation measure (raising enrichment levels or restricting IAEA inspector access) within 30 days.

geopolitical25%

Iran will formally suspend or restrict IAEA inspector access to at least one declared nuclear facility within 30 days.

geopolitical53%

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The IAEA will report that Iran has enriched uranium beyond the 60% purity threshold, a new escalation marker, within 30 days.

geopolitical14%

Iran will formally suspend or terminate participation in nuclear negotiations with the IAEA or E3 group within 30 days.

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