The IAEA or a major intelligence source will report a new significant escalation in Iran's nuclear program, such as enrichment beyond agreed thresholds or restricted inspector access, within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-17 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-17.

Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis shows a Fearon bargaining-range collapse (0%), meaning no stable equilibrium exists and structural conditions favor conflict; policy_action/geopolitical reference class hit rate is 20%, so confidence is anchored near that base rate with modest upward adjustment for the Fearon failure signal.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 17in 18d
Made: Sep 17

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will publicly announce or be confirmed via IAEA reporting to have increased uranium enrichment beyond 90% purity within 30 days

geopolitical5%

The IAEA will report that Iran has enriched uranium beyond the 60% purity threshold, a new escalation marker, within 30 days.

geopolitical14%

Iran will announce a new uranium enrichment escalation measure (raising enrichment levels or restricting IAEA inspector access) within 30 days.

geopolitical25%

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Iran will formally suspend or terminate participation in nuclear negotiations with the IAEA or E3 group within 30 days.

geopolitical58%

The IAEA or a major intelligence source will report a new significant escalation in Iran's nuclear program, such as enrichment beyond agreed thresholds or restricted inspector access, within 30 days

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