Iran's IRGC will conduct a vessel seizure, mining incident, or direct harassment of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-08.

Bayesian Strait of Hormuz Crisis analysis shows escalation probability of 67% with a nonetheless 'sufficient' 50% bargaining range, and IRGC actor intelligence flags active escalation mode following senior naval leadership losses and explicit threats against US infrastructure. Wartime regime and Fearon failure on Iran-nuclear (0% range) compound risk of miscalculation in the chokepoint.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 8in 9d
Made: Sep 24

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China's PBOC or national housing regulators will announce a new targeted property-sector stimulus measure within 30 days.

geopolitical60%

Iran will announce a new advance in uranium enrichment levels or a formal breach of IAEA monitoring commitments within 30 days

geopolitical51%

Kharg Island will remain under Iranian control through September 30, 2026, meaning the Polymarket question 'Will Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30?' resolves NO with near-certainty; probability of Iranian loss of control is assessed at 10%.

geopolitical5%

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China's PLA will conduct a new gray-zone military incursion (naval crossing, air intrusion into Taiwan's ADIZ, or similar coercive maneuver) near Taiwan within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

Iran's IRGC will conduct a vessel seizure, mining incident, or direct harassment of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

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