Iran will announce a new advance in uranium enrichment levels or a formal breach of IAEA monitoring commitments within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 51% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-24.

Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, zero stable equilibria), structurally favoring escalatory nuclear signaling per Fearon (1995) commitment-problem logic

Probability: 51%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 24in 10d
Made: Sep 24

Price Target$30

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will announce a formal breach of IAEA safeguards or enrichment escalation beyond current thresholds within 30 days.

geopolitical32%

Iran will publicly reject or suspend cooperation with IAEA-mediated nuclear negotiations within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

The IAEA or a major intelligence source will report a new significant escalation in Iran's nuclear program, such as enrichment beyond agreed thresholds or restricted inspector access, within 30 days

geopolitical85%

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Iran will announce a new advance in uranium enrichment levels or a formal breach of IAEA monitoring commitments within 30 days

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