Geopolitical
NOPendingKharg Island will remain under Iranian control through September 30, 2026, meaning the Polymarket question 'Will Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30?' resolves NO with near-certainty; probability of Iranian loss of control is assessed at 10%.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.
Crowd market prices this at 0% YES; Hormuz escalation probability (67%) and Iran-nuclear Fearon failure (0% bargaining range) support elevated regional tension but no game-theory scenario or signal indicates territorial loss of a fortified Iranian oil terminal within this window.
- Probability
- 5%
- Timeframe
- 7 days
- Deadline
- Sep 30in 1d
- Made
Price Target$10
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.