China's PBOC or national housing regulators will announce a new targeted property-sector stimulus measure within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 60% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-24.

Nash equilibrium for China Property/Stimulus Dilemma identifies 'China chooses Targeted property bailout' as the most likely outcome (70% confidence, mixed equilibrium), consistent with ongoing PBOC actor-intelligence signals of monitoring external stress.

Probability: 60%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 24in 25d
Made: Sep 24

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran's IRGC will conduct a vessel seizure, mining incident, or direct harassment of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

Iran will announce a new advance in uranium enrichment levels or a formal breach of IAEA monitoring commitments within 30 days

geopolitical51%

Kharg Island will remain under Iranian control through September 30, 2026, meaning the Polymarket question 'Will Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30?' resolves NO with near-certainty; probability of Iranian loss of control is assessed at 10%.

geopolitical5%

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China's PBOC or national housing regulators will announce a new targeted property-sector stimulus measure within 30 days.

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