China's PBOC or national housing regulators will announce a new targeted property-sector stimulus measure within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 60% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-24.
Nash equilibrium for China Property/Stimulus Dilemma identifies 'China chooses Targeted property bailout' as the most likely outcome (70% confidence, mixed equilibrium), consistent with ongoing PBOC actor-intelligence signals of monitoring external stress.
- Probability
- 60%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 24in 25d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.