PARTIALBrier 0.035

Search results show FX interventions during March 20 - April 19 period: 1) Bangladesh Bank bought $70m from banks (April 15), 2) India's central bank implemented rupee arbitrage curbs and intervention measures (March 30, April 1). Evidence shows at least 2 central bank actions but falls short of required 3. Actual: 2 interventions, Required: 3 interventions, 2 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 19, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG correctEM_FX_INTERVENTIONS

At least 3 emerging market central banks will announce emergency foreign exchange interventions within 30 days as wartime regime dollar strength and 67% Hormuz escalation probability create currency crisis conditions

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-20 at 19% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-19. Brier score 0.035.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis projects Strait of Hormuz Crisis at 67% escalation probability with fragile china-us coalition stability (30%). Taiwan Strait Crisis at 53% escalation probability. Current regime is wartime with reference prices showing significant dollar strength (EUR 1.16, elevated energy prices USO 117.36). EM currencies under structural pressure.

Probability: 19%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 19163d ago
Made: Mar 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.