United Parcel Service (UPS) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as trade-war escalation risk (US-China Fearon failure) and Red Sea/Hormuz shipping disruption risk weigh on global logistics volumes (target below $90.01, 5% from $94.75 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-22 at 73% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-06.

US-China Trade War Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) plus Red Sea Shipping Crisis Bayesian equilibrium (Iran maintains Houthi support, US naval convoy escorts) threatening global logistics throughput

Probability

73%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Oct 6in 7d

Made

Sep 22

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.