MISSBrier 0.092

Data-resolved: UPS moved from 102.29 to 99.06 (-3.16%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: below 98.2. Target not reached. Low was 98.15.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT correctUPS

United Parcel Service (UPS) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $98.20, 4% from $102.29 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 30% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.092.

Confirmed Hormuz and Red Sea shipping disruption incidents (tanker seizures, mine deployment, Houthi attacks) sustain elevated freight/fuel surcharge costs pressuring global logistics margins; UPS is an uncovered proxy distinct from the already-tracked FDX/ZIM/DAL/UAL.

Probability: 30%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$98.2

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

United Parcel Service (UPS) will close at least 5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days as trade-war escalation risk (US-China Fearon failure) and Red Sea/Hormuz shipping disruption risk weigh on global logistics volumes (target below $90.01, 5% from $94.75 at creation)

market73%

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United Parcel Service (UPS) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $98.20, 4% from $102.29 at creation)

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