Multiple corroborating reports confirm the crisis materialized within the window: Reuters (wire, 2026-07-23) 'Add a month at sea and $2.5 million - what it costs oil tankers to flee Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb' confirms tankers actively evading the strait due to danger. TradeWinds and Marine Insight (2026-07-23) report 'Iran seizes damaged Dynacom tanker hit by fire in Strait of Hormuz' and 'Iran Seizes Greek Billionaire's Product Tanker Near Strait Of Hormuz.' Widely corroborated multi-outlet reporting (Jerusalem Post, NY Post, Times of Israel, Al Arabiya, Marine Insight, stl.news, India Shipping News - all dated 2026-07-26) describe an oil tanker hitting a naval mine and exploding in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran intercepting six vessels same day. Reuters (wire, 2026-07-29) 'US strikes Iran as widening war engulfs more countries' confirms active military escalation. By early August, Reuters (wire), AP (wire), NYT (wire) and Al Jazeera (wire) report ongoing US-Iran-Oman talks to reopen the strait, confirming it had been effectively closed/disrupted during the window (e.g. NYT wire 2026-08-04: 'An Emerging Deal Could Cement Iran's Control of Strait of Hormuz'). Taken together, this constitutes confirmed vessel seizure, mine deployment, and harassment incidents within the 2026-07-23 to 2026-08-06 window, meeting the prediction's threshold.
Resolved Aug 6, 2026
Geopolitical
LONG correct
A confirmed harassment, mine deployment, or vessel seizure incident involving commercial or naval shipping will occur in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-23 at 23% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-08-06. Brier score 0.593.
Derived from: Bayesian Strait of Hormuz Crisis escalation probability 67%, Iran IRGC actor intelligence showing active escalation mode following loss of senior naval leadership, and Fearon assessment noting sufficient bargaining range does not preclude high escalation probability.
Probability
23%
Timeframe
14 days
Deadline
Aug 669d ago
Made
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .