MISSBrier 0.016

Reuters (wire tier, Aug 3 2026): 'OPEC+ agrees September oil hike, completing rollback of voluntary cuts' - OPEC+ approved a 188,000 bpd PRODUCTION INCREASE for September 2026, not a coordinated production cut. Reuters (wire, Jul 28 2026) reported OPEC+ likely to pause hikes after September, but no cut was announced within the evidence window (2026-07-21 to 2026-08-20). This directly contradicts the prediction of a formal coordinated production CUT decision.

Resolved Aug 20, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG wrong

OPEC+ will announce a formal coordinated production cut decision at or before its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-21 at 13% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-08-20. Brier score 0.016.

Derived from: Bayesian OPEC+ Production Decision equilibrium showing Saudi Cut production / US Release SPR as the dominant fragile-stability outcome (p=100% within the modeled equilibrium, 38% bargaining range).

Probability: 13%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Aug 2040d ago
Made: Jul 21

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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OPEC+ will announce a formal coordinated production cut decision at or before its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.

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