OPEC+ will announce a formal coordinated production cut decision at or before its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-21 at 13% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-08-20. Brier score 0.016.
Derived from: Bayesian OPEC+ Production Decision equilibrium showing Saudi Cut production / US Release SPR as the dominant fragile-stability outcome (p=100% within the modeled equilibrium, 38% bargaining range).
- Probability
- 13%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Aug 2040d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.