HITBrier 0.602

Reuters (wire tier), July 27 2026: 'Red Sea shipping slows after Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia, data shows'. Al Jazeera (wire tier), July 28 2026: 'Yemen's Houthis claim missile attack on Saudi Arabia oil tanker'. Both within the evidence window (2026-07-19 to 2026-08-02), confirming a completed missile attack on a tanker, meeting the threshold of at least one confirmed attack.

Resolved Aug 2, 2026

Geopolitical

Houthi forces will conduct at least one confirmed attack (missile, drone, or vessel seizure attempt) on commercial or naval shipping in the Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb corridor within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-19 at 22% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-08-02. Brier score 0.602.

Derived from: Red Sea Shipping Crisis Nash equilibrium (Iran maintains Houthi support; US naval convoy escorts, 2 equilibria) combined with wartime regime and Hormuz escalation spillover; binary_event/geopolitical reference class hit rate 43%.

Probability: 22%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Aug 258d ago
Made: Jul 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Houthi forces will conduct at least one confirmed attack (missile, drone, or vessel seizure attempt) on commercial or naval shipping in the Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb corridor within 14 days.

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