[basis: absence] Searches for 'India Pakistan surgical strike', 'India cross-border strike Pakistan-based targets', 'India airstrike Pakistan militant camp Reuters', 'India military operation Pakistan territory confirmed August 2026' returned only 'other'-tier sources (Yeni Safak English 'India says airstrike hit major militant camp inside Pakistan' Aug 5 2026, and Pakistan 'completely rejects' the claim same date). No official-tier (Indian/Pakistani government/military) or wire-tier (Reuters/AP/AFP/Bloomberg) source reported a completed strike in past tense within the window. A Reuters wire piece found (Aug 14) covered a Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey defense pact, not an India strike. Per resolution rules, 'other'-tier headlines alone cannot confirm the claim, so threshold not met despite some indication of an Indian claim of an airstrike.
Resolved Aug 18, 2026
Geopolitical
India will conduct at least one confirmed cross-border military strike or acknowledged surgical operation against Pakistan-based targets within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-19 at 22% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-08-18. Brier score 0.046.
Derived from: India-Pakistan Kashmir Escalation Nash equilibrium (US chooses Surgical strikes; China accepts international mediation, mixed, confidence 70%) under general wartime escalation regime; policy_action/geopolitical reference class hit rate 20%, confidence damped per calibration feedback.
Probability
22%
Timeframe
30 days
Deadline
Aug 1842d ago
Made
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.