[basis: absence] Searches for 'DOJ FTC antitrust breakup Google Amazon Apple Meta August 2026', 'FTC antitrust lawsuit breakup proposal tech company July August 2026', 'DOJ antitrust structural remedy Google Amazon Meta 2026', and 'FTC sues break up tech giant 2026' returned no results confirming any formal breakup action or structural remedy proposal within the window. Only tangential/other-tier items found (Apple settlement offers to DOJ ahead of iPhone monopoly trial - not a breakup announcement; AI acqui-hire antitrust commentary). No official or wire-tier source reports a completed DOJ/FTC breakup announcement in past tense during 2026-07-19 to 2026-08-18.
Resolved Aug 18, 2026
Geopolitical
US
The US DOJ or FTC will announce a formal antitrust breakup action or structural remedy proposal against a major technology company within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-19 at 10% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-08-18. Brier score 0.010.
Derived from: Big Tech Antitrust Showdown Nash equilibrium (US chooses Pursue breakup; markets chooses Long small-cap competitors, mixed, confidence 70%); policy_action/geopolitical reference class hit rate 20%, confidence set at base rate given no direct confirming signal yet.
Probability
10%
Timeframe
30 days
Deadline
Aug 1842d ago
Made
Price Target$30
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .