HITBrier 0.450

Evidence Window March 28-April 4, 2026: Multiple sources confirm Iranian strikes during the window. BBC reports 'US and Israel attack Iran' (Apr 3), suggesting active conflict. Institute for Study of War provides Iran Updates (Apr 1, Apr 2). New York Times reports '12 U.S. Troops Injured in Attack on Saudi Base' (Mar 28). Council on Foreign Relations documents 'Iran's War With Israel and the United States' (Apr 2). Türkiye Today reports 'Iranian strike debris hits Oracle in Dubai' (Apr 4). Evidence confirms at least one Iranian strike occurred. Actual: at least 1 strike confirmed, Required: at least 1, threshold met.

Resolved Apr 4, 2026

Geopolitical

Iran will conduct at least one additional ballistic missile strike against US or Israeli targets within 7 days as zero Nash equilibria in nuclear negotiations and active conflict momentum drive escalatory responses

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-28 at 33% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-04. Brier score 0.450.

Derived from: Live intelligence shows 'Iranian missile attack wounds several US troops' indicating active strikes already occurring. Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis shows Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) with no stable equilibrium. IRGC actor intelligence shows 'sustained multi-wave retaliatory missile campaign' already in progress.

Probability: 33%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Apr 4178d ago
Made: Mar 28

Price Target$7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

At least 3 major Middle Eastern airlines will announce route suspensions or capacity reductions within 7 days as Iran's multi-wave missile campaigns against US and Israeli targets (documented 81 strike waves) escalate insurance costs beyond sustainable operating thresholds

geopolitical42%PARTIAL

Philippines will announce at least one significant defense infrastructure expansion or US military cooperation enhancement within 14 days as South China Sea tensions escalate during gray zone conflict scenario

geopolitical65%MISS

At least one European Union member state will announce new strategic grain reserve purchases or food security measures within 30 days as the collapsed US-China bargaining range (0%) and 53% Taiwan Strait escalation probability create supply chain diversification urgency

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Iran will conduct at least one additional ballistic missile strike against US or Israeli targets within 7 days as zero Nash equilibria in nuclear negotiations and active conflict momentum drive escalatory responses

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