Iran will conduct at least one additional ballistic missile strike against US or Israeli targets within 7 days as zero Nash equilibria in nuclear negotiations and active conflict momentum drive escalatory responses
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-28 at 33% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-04. Brier score 0.450.
Derived from: Live intelligence shows 'Iranian missile attack wounds several US troops' indicating active strikes already occurring. Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis shows Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) with no stable equilibrium. IRGC actor intelligence shows 'sustained multi-wave retaliatory missile campaign' already in progress.
- Probability
- 33%
- Timeframe
- 7 days
- Deadline
- Apr 4178d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .