AP News (wire tier): 'Fed leaves interest rate unchanged but with 3 dissents as Warsh praises good family fight' (July 29, 2026). NYT (wire tier): 'Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, Despite Three Votes for an Increase' (July 30, 2026). Additional confirmation: Virginia Business/other-tier report (Aug 19, 2026) 'Fed policymakers' inflation concerns increased at July meeting, minutes show'. This confirms the Fed held rates steady (no cut) at its July 28-29, 2026 meeting, with three dissenting votes favoring a hike (hawkish internal pressure) and minutes showing increased inflation concern -- matching the predicted hawkish hold with inflation-risk guidance within the 30-day window from creation (2026-07-22).
Resolved Aug 21, 2026
Geopolitical
LONG correctTLT
The Federal Reserve will communicate a hawkish hold (no rate cut, guidance emphasizing persistent inflation risk) at its next policy communication within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-22 at 23% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-08-21. Brier score 0.593.
Derived from: Fed Rate Cycle Pivot Nash equilibrium ('fed chooses Hawkish hold + guidance; markets chooses Volatility hedging', bearish, confidence 55%, zero Bayesian equilibria) flagged as a structurally unresolved scenario in the thesis.
Probability
23%
Timeframe
30 days
Deadline
Aug 2156d ago
Made
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .