Vladimir Putin will be out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

Mirrors Polymarket (YES 1%). Bayesian Russia-Ukraine equilibrium is stable (russia: Negotiate from strength, us: Push negotiated settlement, p=91%, bullish confidence 78%), showing no structural indication of imminent leadership collapse. Longevity analysis flags no acute health/succession crisis.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 24 days
Deadline: Sep 30in 1d
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) will close above $84.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market45%MISS

TLT will close above $84.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market43%MISS

TLT will close below $80.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market46%MISS

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Long-duration Treasury ETF TLT will close below $79.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days, as the confirmed Fed hawkish hold (with three dissenting votes favoring a hike) sustains upward pressure on long-term yields despite wartime risk-off conditions.

market24%MISS

Vladimir Putin will be out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026.

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