MISSBrier 0.003

Russian presidential website (kremlin.ru, primary official government source), September 30, 2026, lists 'Meeting with Governors-Elect,' 'First meeting of the 9th State Duma,' and 'Meeting with Milorad Dodik and Savo Minić,' and a September 30 item says 'On October 1, Vladimir Putin will take part in the 23rd annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club.' This is direct contemporaneous evidence of Putin continuing to act as president at the deadline. Actual departures by September 30: 0; required: 1; 0 < 1, threshold not met.

Resolved Oct 7, 2026

Geopolitical

FLAT wrongTLT

Vladimir Putin will be out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 5% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-10-07. Brier score 0.003.

Mirrors Polymarket (YES 1%). Bayesian Russia-Ukraine equilibrium is stable (russia: Negotiate from strength, us: Push negotiated settlement, p=91%, bullish confidence 78%), showing no structural indication of imminent leadership collapse. Longevity analysis flags no acute health/succession crisis.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 24 days
Deadline: Sep 3014d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) will close above $84.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market45%MISS

TLT will close above $84.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market43%MISS

TLT will close below $80.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market46%MISS

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Vladimir Putin will be out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026.

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