MISSBrier 0.212

Data-resolved: TLT moved from 82.20 to 80.84 (-1.65%) during 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-23. Target: below 80.5. Target not reached. Low was 80.46.

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Market

SHORT correctTLT

TLT will close below $80.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 46% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-23. Brier score 0.212.

Fed Rate Cycle Bayesian equilibrium favors hawkish hold with no near-term cut, which should push long-duration Treasury yields higher and TLT lower from the current $82.20, distinct from the prior (denied) TLT-outperformance thesis based on safe-haven rotation.

Probability: 46%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 236d ago
Made: Sep 9

Price Target$80.5

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

TLT will close above $84.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market43%MISS

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) will close above $84.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market45%MISS

Vladimir Putin will be out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026.

geopolitical5%

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TLT will close below $80.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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