MISSBrier 0.206

Data-resolved: TLT moved from 82.21 to 81.25 (-1.17%) during 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21. Target: above 84. Target not reached. High was 82.46.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongTLT

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) will close above $84.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 45% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.206.

Fragile Taiwan Strait coalition stability (30%, critical fracture risk) combined with Iran nuclear Fearon failure argues for renewed flight-to-quality Treasury demand distinct from the earlier TLT-vs-SPY relative-performance call that was denied.

Probability: 45%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$84

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Vladimir Putin will be out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026.

geopolitical5%

TLT will close above $84.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market43%MISS

TLT will close below $80.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market46%MISS

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TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) will close above $84.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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