MISSBrier 0.189

Data-resolved: TLT moved from 82.21 to 81.80 (-0.50%) during 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-22. Target: above 84. Target not reached. High was 82.46.

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Market

LONG wrongTLT

TLT will close above $84.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 43% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-22. Brier score 0.189.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian fragile equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) combined with Iran-nuclear Fearon zero-bargaining-range failure supports continued Treasury safe-haven bid despite Fed hawkish-hold bias, pushing TLT modestly above the current $82.21.

Probability: 43%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 227d ago
Made: Sep 8

Price Target$84

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

TLT will close below $80.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market46%MISS

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) will close above $84.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market45%MISS

Vladimir Putin will be out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026.

geopolitical5%

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TLT will close above $84.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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