TLT (20+ Year Treasury ETF) will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $79.30, 3% from $81.75 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-23 at 85% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-29. Brier score 0.023.

Derived from the Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot equilibrium (hawkish hold + guidance, bearish, 55% confidence) and zero stable Nash equilibria in the Fed scenario; a hawkish surprise raises the long end of the curve, pressuring Treasury prices even amid equity risk-off, consistent with Scenario 2 in the risk assessment.

Probability

85%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Oct 23in 24d

Made

Sep 23

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.