TLT will close below $77.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-25 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-09.

Fed Rate Cycle Pivot Nash equilibrium (hawkish hold + guidance, bearish, 55% confidence) and zero stable Bayesian equilibria in the Fed scenario argue for a hawkish-surprise driven Treasury selloff; target sits within the 14d expected-move band (77.67-81.17).

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 9in 10d
Made: Sep 25

Price Target$77.8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) will close above $81.62 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market85%

TLT (20+ Year Treasury ETF) will close at least 3% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $79.30, 3% from $81.75 at creation)

market85%HIT

TLT will close below $80.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market46%MISS

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TLT will close above $84.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market43%MISS

TLT will close below $77.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days

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