TLT will close below $77.80 on at least one trading day within 14 days
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-25 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-09.
Fed Rate Cycle Pivot Nash equilibrium (hawkish hold + guidance, bearish, 55% confidence) and zero stable Bayesian equilibria in the Fed scenario argue for a hawkish-surprise driven Treasury selloff; target sits within the 14d expected-move band (77.67-81.17).
- Probability
- 85%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Oct 9in 10d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.