MISSBrier 0.059

Data-resolved: TLT moved from 82.34 to 81.25 (-1.32%) during 2026-08-21 to 2026-09-20. Target: below 79. Target not reached. Low was 80.46.

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Market

SHORT correctTLT

Long-duration Treasury ETF TLT will close below $79.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days, as the confirmed Fed hawkish hold (with three dissenting votes favoring a hike) sustains upward pressure on long-term yields despite wartime risk-off conditions.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-21 at 24% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.059.

Derived from: confirmed Fed hawkish hold event (July 28-29 meeting, 3 dissents favoring rate increase) and zero stable Bayesian equilibria in the Fed Rate Cycle scenario, continuing the pattern from the prior denied TLT-outperformance prediction which showed TLT underperforming during Fed hawkishness.

Probability: 24%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Aug 21

Price Target$79

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Vladimir Putin will be out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026.

geopolitical5%

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) will close above $84.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market45%MISS

TLT will close above $84.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market43%MISS