Long-duration Treasury ETF TLT will close below $79.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days, as the confirmed Fed hawkish hold (with three dissenting votes favoring a hike) sustains upward pressure on long-term yields despite wartime risk-off conditions.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-21 at 24% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-21. Brier score 0.059.
Derived from: confirmed Fed hawkish hold event (July 28-29 meeting, 3 dissents favoring rate increase) and zero stable Bayesian equilibria in the Fed Rate Cycle scenario, continuing the pattern from the prior denied TLT-outperformance prediction which showed TLT underperforming during Fed hawkishness.
- Probability
- 24%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Sep 209d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.