MISSBrier 0.022

TLT close at creation (2026-07-29)=82.85; TLT close/current at deadline (2026-08-12)=82.19 -> return = (82.19-82.85)/82.85 = -0.80%. SPY close at creation (2026-07-29)=729.46; SPY current price (2026-08-12)=770.56 -> return = (770.56-729.46)/729.46 = +5.63%. Relative performance = TLT return - SPY return = -0.80% - 5.63% = -6.43%. Required: TLT outperform SPY by >=3%. Actual: TLT underperformed SPY by ~6.43%, therefore threshold NOT met and direction is opposite of predicted (TLT underperformed, not outperformed).

Resolved Aug 12, 2026

Market

LONG wrongTLT

Long-duration Treasury ETF TLT will outperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days as wartime safe-haven rotation continues.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-29 at 15% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-08-12. Brier score 0.022.

Derived from: confirmed risk-off market regime, three concurrent Fearon bargaining failures (Iran-nuclear, US-China trade, Fed-markets scenario at zero equilibria), and technical capitulation readings (SPY RSI 27.3, QQQ RSI 28.4) that historically coincide with flight-to-quality bond flows during active conflict conditions.

Probability: 15%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Aug 1248d ago
Made: Jul 29

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

The Federal Reserve will communicate a hawkish hold (no rate cut, guidance emphasizing persistent inflation risk) at its next policy communication within 30 days.

geopolitical23%HIT

Long-duration Treasury ETF TLT will close below $79.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days, as the confirmed Fed hawkish hold (with three dissenting votes favoring a hike) sustains upward pressure on long-term yields despite wartime risk-off conditions.

market24%MISS

Vladimir Putin will be out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026.

geopolitical5%

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Long-duration Treasury ETF TLT will outperform SPY by at least 3% on a cumulative basis within 14 days as wartime safe-haven rotation continues.

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