[basis: absence] Ran 4 differently-phrased searches (settlement construction approval, land designation, Higher Planning Council approval, settlement expansion announcement) within window 2026-07-25 to 2026-08-09. Found only 'other'-tier reports (IMEMC News Aug 8 tender for 627 units in Kochav Ya'akov; Anadolu/Arab News Aug 5 reports Israel 'plans to build' 2,300 units in Gilo; Palestine Chronicle Aug 4 funding for 'heritage sites') -- none rise above 'other' tier. One 'wire'-tier Al Jazeera piece (Jul 29) covers Israel's diplomatic reaction to Canada's criticism of settlement expansion but does not itself report a new past-tense construction approval or land designation event. No official- or wire-tier source reported a completed new settlement approval/land designation in past tense within the window, so per sourcing rules the claim cannot be confirmed (though other-tier evidence suggests it plausibly occurred).
Resolved Aug 9, 2026
Geopolitical
LONG wrong
Israel will announce at least one new West Bank settlement construction approval or land designation within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-26 at 18% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-08-09. Brier score 0.031.
Derived from: knowledge bank live intelligence item 'Israel Speeding up West Bank Land Grab ahead of Elections' (2026-07-25), tagged election/political-risk, indicating an active pre-election policy trend distinct from existing pending Israel/Iran strike prediction.
Probability
18%
Timeframe
14 days
Deadline
Aug 951d ago
Made
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.