Iran will publicly announce a formal restriction, blockade, or targeted denial of Strait of Hormuz passage to a specific flagged nation's shipping within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 22% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-22.

Strait of Hormuz Bayesian analysis shows 67% escalation probability and prior confirmed harassment/mine/seizure pattern; a formal nation-targeted blockade announcement would mark an escalatory step beyond the already-confirmed ad hoc incident pattern.

Probability: 22%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 227d ago
Made: Sep 8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China's PLA will conduct a single-day air incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ involving more than 30 aircraft within 14 days.

geopolitical62%

A G7 government or senior United Nations official will publicly call for de-escalation or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz during the UN General Assembly session convening in September 2026, within 21 days.

geopolitical74%

The Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged (no cut or hike) following its September 2026 meeting.

geopolitical52%EXPIRED

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Iran will publicly announce a formal restriction, blockade, or targeted denial of Strait of Hormuz passage to a specific flagged nation's shipping within 14 days.

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