Iran will publicly announce a formal restriction, blockade, or targeted denial of Strait of Hormuz passage to a specific flagged nation's shipping within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 22% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-22.
Strait of Hormuz Bayesian analysis shows 67% escalation probability and prior confirmed harassment/mine/seizure pattern; a formal nation-targeted blockade announcement would mark an escalatory step beyond the already-confirmed ad hoc incident pattern.
- Probability
- 22%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Sep 227d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.