Iran will publicly announce an increase in uranium enrichment levels or new centrifuge deployment within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 26% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-08.

Iran Nuclear Bayesian Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structural conditions favor conflict, calculating actor type dominant at 30%) implies continued nuclear program advancement absent a stable negotiated equilibrium.

Probability: 26%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 8in 9d
Made: Sep 8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged (no cut or hike) following its September 2026 meeting.

geopolitical52%EXPIRED

A G7 government or senior United Nations official will publicly call for de-escalation or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz during the UN General Assembly session convening in September 2026, within 21 days.

geopolitical74%

Iran will publicly announce a formal restriction, blockade, or targeted denial of Strait of Hormuz passage to a specific flagged nation's shipping within 14 days.

geopolitical22%

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Iran will publicly announce an increase in uranium enrichment levels or new centrifuge deployment within 30 days.

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