China's PLA will conduct a single-day air incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ involving more than 30 aircraft within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 62% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-22.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (gray zone escalation by China, 53% escalation probability, critical coalition fracture risk) plus prior confirmed pattern of PLA aircraft/ship activity (peak of 21 aircraft/8 ships in late July) suggests continued intensification toward higher single-day incursion counts.

Probability: 62%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 227d ago
Made: Sep 8

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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China's PLA will conduct a single-day air incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ involving more than 30 aircraft within 14 days.

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