China's PLA will conduct a single-day air incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ involving more than 30 aircraft within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 62% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-22.
Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (gray zone escalation by China, 53% escalation probability, critical coalition fracture risk) plus prior confirmed pattern of PLA aircraft/ship activity (peak of 21 aircraft/8 ships in late July) suggests continued intensification toward higher single-day incursion counts.
- Probability
- 62%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Sep 227d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.