The Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged (no cut or hike) following its September 2026 meeting.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 52% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-24.

Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot equilibrium (hawkish hold + guidance, bearish, 55% confidence) combined with the already-confirmed July hawkish hold with three dissenting hike votes; mirrors Polymarket question 2252244 (currently priced 46% YES), where NEXUS holds a higher-conviction view.

Probability: 52%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 1613d ago
Made: Sep 8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

A G7 government or senior United Nations official will publicly call for de-escalation or reopening of the Strait of Hormuz during the UN General Assembly session convening in September 2026, within 21 days.

geopolitical74%

Iran will publicly announce a formal restriction, blockade, or targeted denial of Strait of Hormuz passage to a specific flagged nation's shipping within 14 days.

geopolitical22%

China's PLA will conduct a single-day air incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ involving more than 30 aircraft within 14 days.

geopolitical62%

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The Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged (no cut or hike) following its September 2026 meeting.

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