USO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $130.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range remains fragile (50%, 67% escalation probability) and Iran nuclear zero-bargaining-range failure sustains upward oil price momentum already evidenced by the +5.9% move from $117.79 to $124.76 in the prior 14-day window.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-28 at 5% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-07-29. Brier score 0.902.

Derived from: Bayesian Hormuz Crisis (67% escalation probability, 50% bargaining range) plus recently-denied USO downside prediction confirming actual upward oil momentum against expectation.

Probability

5%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Aug 1149d ago

Made

Jul 28

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.