MISSBrier 0.004

Data-resolved: USO moved from 117.79 to 124.76 (5.92%) during 2026-07-14 to 2026-07-28. Target: below 112. Target not reached. Low was 117.73.

Resolved Jul 28, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongUSO

USO will close below $112.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days, as the Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range remains sufficient for agreement (50%) despite 67% escalation probability, continuing the historical pattern of oil failing to spike on Hormuz rhetoric.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-14 at 6% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-07-28. Brier score 0.004.

Derived from: Bayesian Strait of Hormuz assessment showing a 50% (sufficient) bargaining range despite elevated escalation probability, plus institutional memory of multiple denied WTI-spike predictions (e.g., WTI failed to reach $160, actually declined from $107 to $88 in prior wartime window) showing oil has repeatedly underperformed the naive disruption narrative.

Probability: 6%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Jul 2878d ago
Made: Jul 14

Price Target$112

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $130.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range remains fragile (50%, 67% escalation probability) and Iran nuclear zero-bargaining-range failure sustains upward oil price momentum already evidenced by the +5.9% move from $117.79 to $124.76 in the prior 14-day window.

market5%HIT

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close below $108.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the emerging US-Iran-Oman diplomatic framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (reported NYT wire 2026-08-04) unwinds the war-premium that drove USO from $114.88 (current) to a prior high above $130.

market16%MISS

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $145.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability (67%) and prior confirmed harassment/mine/seizure incidents sustain the oil war-premium beyond the current $134.67 level.

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USO will close below $112.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days, as the Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range remains sufficient for agreement (50%) despite 67% escalation probability, continuing the historical pattern of oil failing to spike on Hormuz rhetoric.

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