MISSBrier 0.005

Data-resolved: USO moved from 134.67 to 141.96 (5.41%) during 2026-08-22 to 2026-09-05. Target: above 145. Target not reached. High was 143.46.

Resolved Sep 5, 2026

Market

LONG correctUSO

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $145.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability (67%) and prior confirmed harassment/mine/seizure incidents sustain the oil war-premium beyond the current $134.67 level.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-22 at 7% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-05. Brier score 0.005.

Derived from: Bayesian Hormuz Crisis analysis (67% escalation probability, 50% bargaining range) and prior confirmed USO breakout above $130 driven by the same Hormuz incident chain.

Probability: 7%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 524d ago
Made: Aug 22

Price Target$145

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States will announce an end to the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by September 14, 2026.

geopolitical5%EXPIRED

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close below $108.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the emerging US-Iran-Oman diplomatic framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (reported NYT wire 2026-08-04) unwinds the war-premium that drove USO from $114.88 (current) to a prior high above $130.

market16%MISS

USO will close above $145.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

market58%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $145.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability (67%) and prior confirmed harassment/mine/seizure incidents sustain the oil war-premium beyond the current $134.67 level.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture