MISSBrier 0.025

Data-resolved: USO moved from 114.88 to 130.91 (13.95%) during 2026-08-06 to 2026-08-20. Target: below 108. Target not reached. Low was 116.19.

Resolved Aug 20, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongUSO

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close below $108.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the emerging US-Iran-Oman diplomatic framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (reported NYT wire 2026-08-04) unwinds the war-premium that drove USO from $114.88 (current) to a prior high above $130.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-06 at 16% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-08-20. Brier score 0.025.

Derived from: Strait of Hormuz Bayesian assessment (50% bargaining range 'sufficient for agreement' despite 67% escalation probability) plus confirmed news of active reopening talks post-crisis; USO already declining from confirmed $130 peak to $114.88 reference price, indicating de-escalation repricing already underway.

Probability: 16%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Aug 2040d ago
Made: Aug 6

Price Target$108

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $130.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range remains fragile (50%, 67% escalation probability) and Iran nuclear zero-bargaining-range failure sustains upward oil price momentum already evidenced by the +5.9% move from $117.79 to $124.76 in the prior 14-day window.

market5%HIT

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $145.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability (67%) and prior confirmed harassment/mine/seizure incidents sustain the oil war-premium beyond the current $134.67 level.

market7%MISS

USO will close below $112.00 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days, as the Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range remains sufficient for agreement (50%) despite 67% escalation probability, continuing the historical pattern of oil failing to spike on Hormuz rhetoric.

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USO (United States Oil Fund) will close below $108.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the emerging US-Iran-Oman diplomatic framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (reported NYT wire 2026-08-04) unwinds the war-premium that drove USO from $114.88 (current) to a prior high above $130.

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