The United States will announce an end to the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by September 14, 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 5% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-22.

Mirrors Polymarket question 3702042 (YES 3%). Hormuz Fearon bargaining range at 50% but escalation probability 67%; confirmed ongoing harassment/mine/seizure incidents through August with no resolution catalyst evident in the short window.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 8 days
Deadline: Sep 1415d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USO will close above $145.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

market58%HIT

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $159.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market46%HIT

USO will close above $165.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days

market85%

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USO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $145.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability (67%) and prior confirmed harassment/mine/seizure incidents sustain the oil war-premium beyond the current $134.67 level.

market7%MISS

The United States will announce an end to the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by September 14, 2026.

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