USO will close above $165.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-16 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

Wartime regime with Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability at 67% and 'sufficient bargaining range' framing already breaking down in prior periods; direct first-order oil price impact per wartime constraints, target within 1x the 14d expected move band (157.36-166.36).

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 30in 1d
Made: Sep 16

Price Target$165.5

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $159.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market46%HIT

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close at least 3.5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation risk (67% Bayesian probability) keeps a geopolitical risk premium in crude (target above $153.35, 3.5% from $148.16 at creation)

market85%

USO will close above $145.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

market58%HIT

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USO will close above $165.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days

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