USO (United States Oil Fund) will close at least 3.5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation risk (67% Bayesian probability) keeps a geopolitical risk premium in crude (target above $153.35, 3.5% from $148.16 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-22 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-22.

Bayesian Hormuz Crisis escalation probability 67%, wartime regime risk scenario 1 (Hormuz materializes → oil spike)

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 22in 23d
Made: Sep 22

Price Target$153.35

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USO will close above $165.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days

market85%

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $159.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market46%HIT

USO will close above $145.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

market58%HIT

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The United States will announce an end to the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by September 14, 2026.

geopolitical5%EXPIRED

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close at least 3.5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation risk (67% Bayesian probability) keeps a geopolitical risk premium in crude (target above $153.35, 3.5% from $148.16 at creation)

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