HITBrier 0.291

Early-confirmed: USO hit target above 159.5 on 2026-09-14. Current price: 158.67 (started at 154.90).

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Market

LONG correctUSO

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $159.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 46% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-14. Brier score 0.291.

Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability of 67% and confirmed ongoing tanker seizure/mine incidents sustain an oil war-premium; target sits within the 14-day expected-move band (150.59-159.21) upper edge, reflecting continuation of the confirmed pattern of USO strength.

Probability: 46%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 263d ago
Made: Sep 12

Price Target$159.5

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USO will close above $165.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days

market85%

USO will close above $145.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

market58%HIT

The United States will announce an end to the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by September 14, 2026.

geopolitical5%EXPIRED

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USO (United States Oil Fund) will close at least 3.5% above its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz escalation risk (67% Bayesian probability) keeps a geopolitical risk premium in crude (target above $153.35, 3.5% from $148.16 at creation)

market85%

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $159.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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