HITBrier 0.179

Early-confirmed: USO hit target above 145 on 2026-09-08. Current price: 146.03 (started at 141.96).

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Market

LONG correctUSO

USO will close above $145.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 58% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-09. Brier score 0.179.

Strait of Hormuz Bayesian equilibrium shows 67% escalation probability despite a 'sufficient' 50% bargaining range; confirmed prior Hormuz incidents (mines, seizures) and Brent >$90 sustained through the prior window support continued upward oil pressure into the 1973 Oil Embargo anniversary window (Oct 17).

Probability: 58%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 7in 8d
Made: Sep 7

Price Target$145

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States will announce an end to the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by September 14, 2026.

geopolitical5%EXPIRED

USO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $159.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market46%HIT

USO will close above $165.50 on at least one trading day within 14 days

market85%

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USO will close above $145.00 on at least one trading day within 30 days.

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